Reclaiming Common Sense

Fourth Week of The Month - Healthy New Home Sales Data

Very Strong Weekly Unemployment Claims Data - Kaiser Study on Health Benefits

This column writes a forecast article each month that covers the New Construction prospects, the existing home prospects, and the new home sales potential. Every week we have a weekly unemployment claims report, even though the mainstream media barely discusses it. We also received information regarding health care insurance costs. We also received the second revision of the second quarter GDP data (Meh. I will get around to that next week.) Oh, an a "whistle blower letter" regarding a phone call that the President had. What received the lion's share of the new coverage?

(Sep. 25) The August New Home Sales data was remarkable. Units sold spiked. An all-time Average Sales Price Record was set. We are on track for our best new home sales year since 2007. "August New Home Sales Best Since 2007" tells you what you might not have heard.

(Sep. 26)  First-time claims were recorded under 200,000 claims, non-seasonally adjusted. Continuing Claims fell under 1.4 million, to a level only beaten since November 24, 1973 by one week last year during the first week of October. The insured unemployment rate fell to 0.97%, only beaten by the first week of October 2018 level of 0.95%. First-time claims data and continuing claims data will be the first sign of a slowing economy. Some are concerned that the first-time claims datum is slightly higher than the same week last year. That will happen when you have 2 million more covered insured. "Nineteenth Week with First-time Unemployment Claims under 200,000" explains just how good the unemployment data is.

(Sep.28) The Affordable Care Act was passed in an attempt to lower premiums and a higher percentage of people covered by health insurance. Premiums have risen. Deductible have risen. The percentage of employer provided health care coverage has fallen. Employees are carrying a higher burden of their employer provided benefits than they were carrying prior to the passage of the ACA. "Kaiser Study: Single Coverage Versus Family Coverage" explains it.

The data that we have been receiving this month have been remarkable. New home sales spiked. An all-time average sales price for new homes was set. Inventory is stable. Weekly unemployment claims are trending lower and are ahead of pace to set a record number of weeks under 200,000 claims, non-seasonally adjusted. There is some stabilization in the employee covered percentages, mostly having to do with an elevated level of full-time jobs. The economy is doing well. We will find out what happened next month.

It's the Economy.​