Seasonally Adjusted Jobs and Workers Rose.
Unemployment Fell Big League.
The monthly jobs report is created using two data sets that are rarely in sync: the Current Population Survey (CPS) jobs and unemployment data and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) wages and workers data. Each data set is seasonally adjusted with seasonal factors that change month to month, season to season, and year to tear. They are seasonally adjusted because January and September are "unbelievably" bad, non-seasonally adjusted, and March, April and May are "unbelievably" good, non-seasonally adjusted. Some months down is up. This is one of them..
The Current population Survey Jobs and Unemployment data was expected to be strong. Unemployment was expected to fall this month by 300,000 or 600,000 or 800,000 non-seasonally adjusted workers. It was expected that we would see a non-seasonally adjusted drop in full-time jobs and a non-seasonally adjusted gain in part-time jobs. with more part-time jobs added than full-time jobs lost. The Seasonally Adjusted CPS Jobs data was less clear. We could see 200,000 or 400,000 or 600,000 or 800,000 net seasonally adjusted (SA) CPS jobs added this month. The non-seasonally adjusted Participation rate was expected to rise from September to September. July or August tends to be the peak month for participation, non-seasonally adjusted.
Unemployment fell from 6.203 million to 5.465 million workers, non-seasonally adjusted. This was a significant drop. It means that the NSA U-3 unemployment rate dropped to 3.33%It was thought that we could see a drop up to 800,000 workers so this was within expectations. This means that we have slightly fewer unemployed workers than we had during September 1999 and slightly more unemployed workers than we had during September 2000. The unemployment rate is the lowest for the month of September since September 1968. This was expected. The NSA U-3 dropped by 738,000 while the SA U-3 fell by 275,000.
We saw 1.1 million non-seasonally adjusted part-time jobs added to the economy. We also saw 452,000 full-time jobs trimmed. This means that we saw a net NSA CPS job gain of 662,000 jobs. This is not what was reported because this is the Household jobs data and not the Establishment worker data. The seasonally adjusted (SA) data reported the addition of 309,000 SA FT jobs and the addition of 208,000 SA PT jobs.
The September participation rate was the highest since September 2013. Non-Seasonally Adjusted Participation Fell while the seasonally adjusted participation rate rose. This is fairly normal. If you look at the Participation rate/unemployment rate graph you will see that participation continues to trend higher while unemployment rate trends lower. This is difficult to do be a drop in unemployment is a drop in participants unless those participants become full-time or part-time employees. The participation rate during September 2013 was 63.18% while the unemployment rate was 7.00%. This month the participation rate is nearly identical with the 2013 value at 63.14%. Would you rather have more unemployment or less? If you examine the participation rate/unemployment rate table you will find that we are still missing millions of potential workers. The unemployment rate during September 2000 was 3.77% with a participation rate of 66.69%. The "effective unemployment rate" this month is 8.47%. That sound bad unless you consider that the peak U-7 was 12.29% during September of 2011.
The Non-seasonally adjusted CES worker level was expected to drop between 0.21% and 0.49% between August and September. This meant that we could see roughly 273,000 to 641,000 workers leave the workforce during this September. The annual growth rate was 1.93% this past April and just 1.52% during August. All sectors were expected to grow month to month, seasonally adjusted. Month to month the NSA CES data is expected to grow only for Education and Health Services (EHS,) and Government. All Sectors were expected to grow September to September, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. The big question mark is whether Mining and Logging would spike or drop by 8% from the same month last year, non-seasonally adjusted? The largest non-seasonally adjusted gains from last September are expected Construction, PBS, EHS, Manufacturing, and LAH. The largest seasonally adjusted growth were expected in M/L, Construction, PBS, EHS, and LAH. Information (IT) should be question mark, as it normally is.
September is one of the months for which seasonally adjusted data was "created." The non-seasonally adjusted private sector worker data fell, as expected. The drop was virtually identical to what was recorded during September of 2017 and September of 2018. When you have a larger economy, year in an year out, the drops will be larger, in general.
The seasonally adjusted data showed an increase of 136,000 private sector workers. This is in addition to the upward revision from 130,000 workers added to 168,000. The private sector number was reported at just 96,000 workers and is now 130,000. The addition of 34,000 workers to the August data means that his month could have been reported at 180,000.
The seasonal factor used to covert the non-seasonally adjusted data to the seasonally adjusted data rose. This month's 114,000 private sector jobs would have been just 89,000 last September. This creep was projected.
The number of multiple job holders (MJH) was expected to jump from the August level and set a September Record. The total number of MJH from 8.038 Million last month to over 8.1 million this month. . The number of FT PT job workers were also expected to rise.The level is expected to go from 4.581 million to over 4.6 million. The PT PT level was expected to rise from 1.95 million to over 2 million and up to 2.1 million, as the number of Part-time jobs jump. We normally hit peak MJH levels during October, November, or December, due to Christmas hiring. How high can we go?
We saw 8.331 Million multiple job workers this September. This is the most ever for the month of September. We saw 4.787 million people working a primary FT job and a secondary PT job. This was a September Record. We saw 2.114 million people working two PT jobs. This was a September Record. More detail will be found in the "War on (Wo)Men" article where the full-time and part-time data will be analyzed by gender
Wages are expected to set a monthly record. The monthly wages and workers article details how each sector sees a different growth rate in hourly wages. Each sector works different levels of hours per work week. When hour wages and hours worker=d both increase from their prior year level we see total wages rise.
How is President Trump doing compared to former Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush, and Obama? It was during the 1992 election that he phrase "It's the Economy, Stupid" was coined. So far President Trump has added more full-time jobs than any of the prior four two term Presidents. Only President Trump and Former President Clinton added full-time jobs while cutting unemployed workers. How will President Trump compare after month 32? Unemployment is expected to fall to levels lower than under former President Clinton. If there are substantially more part-time jobs are added than full-time jobs are lost we could start climbing the Jobs Mountain, again. President Trump has added more full-time jobs than former Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush or Obama. This will be covered in the "Five Presidents Article."
The next article will cover the worker and wages data. We saw record hourly wages in nine of ten private sectors. Hours worked increased month to month for all sectors except "other Services" and "Leisure and Hospitality." The data was better than is being reported elsewhere. Wages rose 3.38%. Hours worked rose by 3.20%. The workforce rose by 1.55% from last September. When combined the gross wages earned rose by 4.81%.
This jobs report was remarkable. There was a considerable amount to say. There is a considerable amount left to be said.
It's the Economy.
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