(Sep 1) Every once in a while a thought enters my head for a potential column. The job projections in this column often focus on the monthly changes that we should expect for a given category. Recently annual changes and trends in housing as well as revenue and spending have been forwarded in articles. How are we doing with Job Creation? How are we Doing with Worker Creation? There is a difference. "Final Pre-Jobs Report Thoughts" reveals that while we are adding both workers and jobs that the pace of growth for each category is slowing.
(Sep 2) You may have read elsewhere that we added "jobs" during August. We lost one million part-time jobs and gained nearly 400,000 full-time jobs, not seasonally adjusted. We did gain 33,000 non-seasonally adjusted private sector workers - the problem is that the headline number is the seasonally adjusted Current Employment Statistics jobs - and the Department of labor had to skew the season factors used to convert. The August Jobs Numbers were a Disappointment. The reporting of them elsewhere was terrible.
(September 5) A regular installment of this column is the article "Four Presidents at __ Months" which compares Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush, and Obama at the same point in their Presidencies. The Column "Four Presidents at 91 months - Laboring Under False Pretenses" examined the number of participants added to the economy, as well as the levels of full-time jobs and part-time jobs created, the number of unemployed workers, and the participation and unemployment rates. This column raises the important issue of the unemployed who are not being counted - the effectively unemployed - not participating and not unemployed. The effective unemployment rate is 10% to 13%.
(Sep 5) A regular installment of this column is the article "Four Presidents at __ Months" which compares Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush, and Obama at the same point in their Presidencies. The Column "Four Presidents at 91 months - Laboring Under False Pretenses" examined the number of participants added to the economy, as well as the levels of full-time jobs and part-time jobs created, the number of unemployed workers, and the participation and unemployment rates. This column raises the important issue of the unemployed who are not being counted - the effectively unemployed - not participating and not unemployed. The effective unemployment rate is 10% to 13%.
(Sep 7) Last week the weekly unemployment claims report was released in advance of the Employment Situation Report. This report receives very little attention these days. "Unemployment Claims are Simmering" reveals how we have over 2 million people in the "Continuing Claims" category. The August Jobs Report revealed how we have 7.996 million unemployed people, according to the Current Population Survey (CPS) data. What is happening with regard to the remaining 4.996 million people?
(Sep 7) The monthly Employment Situation report provides a cornucopia of data that can be analyzed. A follow-up to the monthly jobs column "Weak August Jobs Report - 1 Million Part-time Jobs Lost" was the "Four Presidents" column. A second column that is regularly produced is the one that reports on the level of people who are working multiple jobs. We have had record or near record levels of people working two-part-time jobs almost every month of this year. This month we had a "record number of August workers working two full-time jobs." The number of people working two part-time jobs is still elevated. This column is important to read because it explains part of the reason why the unemployment claims levels are so low: If you work two jobs and lose one then you are still employed and do not receive benefits - even if you lose your full-time job and only have a part-time job on which to rely.
(Sep 8) This week's unemployment claims report was received with a resounding thud as it hit the floor. The authors of the report have been claiming a record streak of under 300,000 seasonally adjusted first time claims for consecutive weeks. This is a FACT (False Assertion Considered to be True.) We are not at 79 consecutive weeks. We are at 29 weeks. This week's SA FTU number was reported at 261,000. "Should the First Time Claim Number Been Reported at 294,000" continues the story of how seasonal factors make a big difference when reporting the SA FTU number. We are at 29 weeks, not 79 weeks.
(Sep 9) How are you doing during this recovery? How well you are doing may depend upon how old you are. One of the underreported stories is the impact of the participation rate on our economy. The "Four Presidents" column reveals the effective unemployment rate. The "Multiple Job Holder" column explains why the unemployment rate and unemployment claims are not rising.What is interesting is that there are fewer workers between the ages of 35-49 years of age working right now. It is also important to note that the "Participation rate is down for those between the ages of 16 and 64" Why is this important? It is important because we had more people working past the age of 60 during the month of August than any other August going back to August of 2003. We have more unemployed workers over the age of 55 than we had unemployed during August of 2008. If you don't believe me, read the column
(Sep 12) There has been an abundance of discussions on why the Federal Reserve should or should not raise interest rates next week. This week the column "Why the Fed Should, Won't Raise interest rates" dug into the recent new home construction, new home sales, and existing home sales data as well as the employment and unemployment data and the retail sales and consumer price index numbers. Just because they shouldn't raise rates doesn't mean that they won't.
(Sep 13) This column has dissected the employment data many different ways. This week the column "Obamanomics: Battle of the Sexes - Who Has Had a Better Recovery" looked at the full-time and part-time job changes as well as the unemployment changes. Men lost 10 million full-time jobs during the recession. Women were not hit as hard. Women have added more full-time jobs and fewer part-time jobs then men since July 2007.
(Sep 14) While running for office Senator Obama called the addition f $4 trillion in Federal Debt by President George W Bush "unpatriotic" and "irresponsible." When he took office the federal debt was just over $10 trillion. This month the "Unpatriotic and Irresponsible Debt Hit $19.5 trillion."
(Sep 15) The monthly retail sales report (MARTS) reveals where we are spending money. We have seen a consistent and persistent slowing in spending in the Gasoline Sector, the electronics and appliance sector, and the clothing sector. "Sluggish Retail Sales - Larger Adjusted Slowdown than Anticipated " analyzed the advanced retail sales numbers for August, the preliminary data for July, and the final numbers for June." There was some good news, some bad news, and lots of revisions.
(Sep 15) The Weekly Unemployment Claims Report has become an afterthought for many who follow economic data. "Alarming Unemployment Claims Numbers " details how low the non-seasonally adjusted first-time unemployment claims were and how the Seasonally Adjusted FTU number should have been reported even lower than it was. It also details how we are not at 80 consecutive weeks of under 300,000 seasonally adjusted claims.
(Sep 16) Friday was another day to dig into the August Employment Situation data in a another way - employment by sectors. There are eleven sectors that are measured. "Five Sectors have not returned to Pre-Recession levels."
(Sep 17) The Week in review Column. This week was a quiet week for data. The most important number that was released this was the Federal Debt Number: $19.5 trillion dollars. Another piece of important data was the Retail Sales Report. The rest of this week was spent digging into the Jobs Report data and the unemployment claims report data.
(Sep 19) The week started with the column "When will the Recession Restart?" Some people ask whether or not the recession ever ended. This column looks at the data from more than one perspective. Recession are usually determined to have occurred when there is negative Gross Domestic Product growth for two or more quarters. If a recession begins during the middle of a quarter it may take over 6 months for it to be officially recognized. This column examines the data from the jobs perspective, the retail sales perspective, and from the housing perspective.
(Sep 20) The first piece of housing data examined this week was the New Home Construction data. The Column "Weak August New Construction Data" examined the patterns in New Home Starts, Units under Construction, and Completions. The Data is Weaker than what were recorded during 1983 and 1992.
(Sep 21) Next Week we will have the first Presidential Debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump. The main questions of this debate are supposed to function on the economy. The column "Questions for Clinton and Trump Debate." What will they do to increase participation? What will they do to get five sectors back to pre-recession levels? What will they do to boost home ownership? What will they do about the irresponsible and unpatriotic debt? What will they do about the Affordable Care Act on the rising costs of health insurance?
(Sep 22) Almost every week of the year the Labor Department releases the unemployment claims report on Thursday morning. You may have missed the reports if you have been expecting it to be reported on the news. This week the first-time unemployment claims recorded an increase in numbers and reported a decrease in numbers. Continuing Claims are at or near a 16 year low, for this time of year, again.
(Sep 23) The August Existing Home Sales data was released this week as well. We saw improvement over last August for both units sold as sales price. The Seasonally adjusted data was report as declining. The Realtors think we are doing better than last year at this time. The trend is to be slower than 2015 and even 2013. If we looked at the non-seasonally adjusted data we are doing worse than 2003 or 2008. The existing home market appears to be slowing.
(Sep 24)The Week in Review Column. This week the data was scarce. What data was released was poor. We saw week new home construction data. We saw weak existing home sales data. We saw weak trends in each category. The first-time unemployment data appears to be artificially low. There are many questions and few answers. It will be interesting to see if any of the questions asked this week are used in the debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
(Sep 26) The last piece of the housing data is the "New Home Sales Data." This month we saw new home sales at a slower pace than what we saw during 1976. The Recession that started during 2006 is still in recovery mode. The only good news is that sales prices of new homes are rising. That may not be good news if you are buying a new home.
(Sep 29) One of the under-reported reports is the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment report. The jobs data is broken down by state and sector. The unemployment data is broken down by state. "Nine States had a Lower Employment Level during Augusy of 2016 than August of 2007."
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