(Sep. 1) The Week in Review was abbreviated. "September 1 Week in Review: Data Ignored" examined the first revisions to the second quarter GDP, the weekly unemployment claims data, and the August Employment Situation Report, or Jobs Report, forecast.
(Sep. 5) This was "Jobs Week" with the release of the August ADP Payroll report, the Weekly Unemployment Claims Report, and the August Employment Situation Report. This column writes forecast articles for the ADP report and the "Jobs Report." The article "ADP Payroll Preview: Solid except Construction" examined the July to August Changes and the August to August changes. There was the possibility of a month to month decline in Construction and August to August declines in the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities and the IT sectors
(Sep. 5) There are some economists that are predicting a recession will hit next year. There were prognosticators proclaiming the end of the economic expansion and a recession from which we would never escape once President Trump won the election. "Chicken Little Economists" details how the sky is not falling. The storm clouds are not on the radar.
(Sep. 6) Thursday was a double header with the release of the August ADP Payroll report at 8:15 AM EDT and the Weekly Unemployment Claims Report at 8:30 AM EDT.Last week we had the 12th week of the year with the non-seasonally adjusted first-time unemployment claims data under 200,000 claims. This week the NSA FTU value dropped by almost 2%, so it was "Lucky 13 Weeks Under 200,000 Claims." The questions are "When will the NSA FTU claims number drop below 150,00" and "When will the NSA Continuing Claims data fall below 1.250 Million?"
(Sep. 6) The August ADP report was rather lackluster, in a good way. "August ADP Points to more of the same" details how month to month every sector added to their payroll except "Natural Resources" and how every sector grew August to August except Information. The month to month growth was better than August 2016 and slower than August 2017. The year to year growth was better than August 2017 and slower than August 2016. Remember, there were massive revisions to the 2016 and 2017 data after the January Jobs report was released and was reflected in the February ADP Payroll Report. The annual growth rate was unchanged between June, July, and August.
(Sep. 7) The August Jobs Report was better than the "experts expected" and better than was reported. "August Jobs Report: Workers Up, Participation Down" reports that the Non-Seasonally Adjusted Current Employment Statistics recorded its best August since 2014: unemployment fell, its fourth largest August Drop ever; Full-time and part-time jobs saw a huge drop off, the largest combined drop since 1980. Even after this serious drop, most likely seasonal jobs, we have the most August Worker ever and the most August FT jobs ever.
(Sep. 7) What about wages? The "Up" economists (Squirrel,) have been deflecting the dropping unemployment rate, the rising participation rate, and the surge in full-time jobs by asking "What about wages?" (Squirrel) What about inflation adjusted, or Real Wages? (Squirrel.) All I remember from 2009 through 2016 were discussions of wages not keeping up with inflation. Now that wages and inflation are heating up, and wages are outpacing inflation, the "Up" economists are saying "Yeah, but." "August Wages and Workers Jump Higher" examines the non-seasonally adjusted worker data and the non-seasonally adjusted wage data by sector.
(Sep. 8) The week in review titled: "September 8 Week in Review: Payroll Pop."
(Sep. 10) This week began where last week concluded with the August Jobs Report Data. How is the current President doing with regard to jobs and unemployment as compared with his predecessors? "Five Presidents at 19 months: Full-time Jobs" shows that the workforce population is growing faster than under former President Obama and Clinton President Trump has added more full-time jobs than former Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush, or Obama. President Trump has cut the number of unemployed where former Presidents Reagan, Bush and Obama saw unemployment levels increase from the the time that they took office while former President Clinton and President Trump saw unemployment drop after 19 moths in office.
(Sep. 10) They still publish the weekly unemployment claims data. "Just How Good is the Weekly Unemployment Claims Data" explains that the number f people covered insured matters and the number of weeks that the non-seasonally adjusted first-time claims have been under 200,000 people is better this year than during 1973.
(Sep. 11) There has been a considerable amount of attention being paid to the number of Job Openings and the Number of Unemployed workers. These data points are derived from two different surveys and measure two different things. This is like comparing a red apple with a red pomegranate. "Jumping July JOLTS Report" explains this and digs into the job opening, quits, and hires data.
(Sep. 12) This column publishes forecast articles and "results" articles. It is important to understand what could happen in order to measure what did happen. "August Retail Forecast: Over 5% growth" examined the possibilities for month to month, August versus August, and January through August growth potential. We are in a Retail Renaissance. We have been growing at 5% or more during the past few months. The current year data has been ahead of the trailing year data. The data for the current month has been surging.The prognosis was good.
(Sep. 13) This week the non-seasonally adjusted first-time claims level dropped to 161,892. If the seasonally adjusted value was reported under 300,000 we had headline news. This was the 14th week that the non-seasonally adjusted data was recorded under 200,000. This beats the weeks under 200,000 mark set during 1973. "First-time Claims Flashback to 1973" also details how the continuing claims data fell below 1.5 million claims, and how this is better than it was during the first week of September during 1970 and 1971.
(Sep. 14) There has been a considerable amount of attention devoted to weekly wage gains and monthly inflation levels. Are wages keeping up with inflation? "Inflation, What Inflation. August CPI Data" details how the annual rate of inflation dropped from July to August, how we are still seeing commodity deflation and service inflation, how the cost if Medical insurance has been manipulated, and how the August Inflation rate was lower than August 2005, August 2006, August 2008, and August 2011.
(Sep. 14) We are in a Retail Renaissance. The total level of retail sales has increased 5.29% during the past 12 months. Retail sales are up 5.73% January through August this year as compared to the same time during 2017. Total August Sales have increased by 6.85% as compared with August 2017. These data points are remarkable. "Record August Retail, Again" explored the data and found strong growth in non-store retail, furniture/furnishings, Building Material/Garden Equipment, and even Electronics and Appliances. We even saw a surge in Food and Beverage Store sales and food and drinking places sales when a drop was possible.
(Sep. 17) The week started with the August Real Estate Forecast Article. This article examined the data for New Home Construction, New Home Sales, and Existing Home sales. This article was written in advance of this week's August New Construction data and August's Existing Home Sales Report. The data was examined on month to month potential, August to August Potential, the sales made during the past 12 months and the sales made during the current year. There was an expected surge in New home starts, units under construction, and completions. The average sales price for August was supposed to set an August record for new home sales and existing home sales. Units sold were expected to improve considerably for new home sales. Existing home sales were expected to improve over last year. Inventory was going to help new home sales and may have negatively impacted existing home sales.
(Sep. 18) Earlier this month we received the August Jobs Report. There are many ways to examine the data. "Men and Women: Record August Jobs" look at the full-time job losses and gains since the beginning of the Jobs Recession, July 2007. Men lost the most full-time jobs and took the longest to recover those lost jobs. Women recovered the fastest and have added the most total jobs, full-time and part-time. Men still work more full-time jobs than women. Women still work more part-time jobs than men. Both have lower participation rates than they had July 2007.
(Sep. 19) It was projected that we would see August to August increases in New Constructions Starts, Units Under Construction, and New Construction Completions. We did see this happen. "August New Construction: Wow" details that August to August Starts were up, to the highest for August since 2007, Units under Construction were at their highest August Levels since 2007, and the same was true for Completions. Best data during the past eleven years.
(Sep. 20) Do you know what was also remarkable this week? Weekly Unemployment Claims. The non-seasonally adjusted first-time unemployment claims data was recorded under 200,000 claims for the 15th week this year. Last year we had 4 weeks under 200,000. We had two weeks under 200,000 during 2016 and one week under 200,000 claims during 2015. The Continuing Claims data remained below 1.500 million non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims. Do we have "Hurricane-proof Unemployment Claims Data?"
(Sep. 20) Thursday we also saw the release of the August Existing Home Sales Data. It was reported as being flat. It depends on your perspective, We had more total sales this August than last August, non-seasonally adjusted (NSA,) and we had better inventory data, NSA, than last August. The current year sales data is falling between where we were during August 2016 and August 2017.. We also set a record average sales price for August. "New August Record Average Sales Price, Existing Homes" explains how the data was recorded better than it was reported.
(Sep. 22) "September 22 Week in Review: Real Estate Roaring."
(Sep. 24) The week started with some data that some people have not addressed: The Covered Insured Unemployment data. The Insured Unemployment Rate (IUR) compares the number of continuing unemployment claims to the number of people estimated to be covered by unemployment insurance. Where some in the media are expounding on the "FACT" that we have more job openings than unemployed workers, a FACT is a False Assertion Considered to be True, they are ignoring the situation that we have under 1.5 million people receiving unemployment benefits. "How Good are the Weekly Unemployment Claims (Part 2)" explains what is not being covered elsewhere.
(Sep. 25) There are many pieces of data included in the monthly employment situation report, or jobs report. This week this column addressed the multiple jobholder data, those working two full-time jobs, two part-time jobs, or a full-time job and a part-time job. "Multiple Job Holders Up from last August" reported that even though we saw a drop in non-seasonally adjusted full-time jobs and non-seasonally adjusted part-time jobs drop from July to August, we saw the number of multiple jobs increase from August 2017 to August 2018.
(Sep. 26) We set a record average sales price during August. We have sold more new homes this year than last year. You are not hearing this elsewhere because this column analyzes the non-seasonally adjusted data where most in the media address the seasonally adjusted data. "Solid August New Home Sales," details how seven of the eight months this year we have sold more units than we did during 2017, with one month tying last year's sales. The inventory is rising, returning to a normal level based on history.
(Sep. 27) We saw remarkable first-time unemployment (FTU) claims data and seriously low continuing claims (CC) data recorded this week. This happened the same day that Judge Kavanaugh's accuser came forward and the Judge gave his impassioned defense before the American people. There used to be headlines when the seasonally adjusted (SA) FTU claims number came in under 300,000 claims, with a "3," during one week. This week was the 16th week this year that the NSA FTU data was under 200,000 claims, with a "2." The most we have ever had during one year is 19. That happened during 1967 when we had fewer than 53 million covered insured. We are approaching 142 million covered insured this year.
(Sep. 28) This column has produced six articles regarding the August Jobs Report. The sixth article was "August: Older Workers Over-Participating" examined the Job Levels, unemployment levels, and participation levels by age group. There have been discussions that retiring Baby Boomers have been dragging down the national participation rate and that teenagers are experiencing record low unemployment. The problem is that we have more people over the age of 60 working, and we have one of the worst participation rates for teenagers ever recorded.
(Sep. 29) "September 29 Week in Review: Winning"
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