Reclaiming Common Sense

(There was more than one story told this week. This week we had the Kavanaugh testimony, This week we also received strengthening new home sales data and seriously low unemployment claims data. This week there was also the opportunity to revisit the August Jobs Report and revisit last week's unemployment claims data.


(Sep. 24) The week started with some data that some people have not addressed: The Covered Insured Unemployment data. The Insured Unemployment Rate (IUR) compares the number of continuing unemployment claims to the number of people estimated to be covered by unemployment insurance. Where some in the media are expounding on the "FACT" that we have more job openings than unemployed workers, a FACT is a False Assertion Considered to be True, they are ignoring the situation that we have under 1.5 million people receiving unemployment benefits. "How Good are the Weekly Unemployment Claims Part 2)" explains what is not being covered elsewhere.

(Sep. 25) There are many pieces of data included in the monthly employment situation report, or jobs report. This week this column addressed the multiple jobholder data, those working two full-time jobs, two part-time jobs, or a full-time job and a part-time job. "Multiple Job Holders Up from last August" reported that even though we saw a drop in non-seasonally adjusted full-time jobs and non-seasonally adjusted part-time jobs drop from July to August, we saw the number of multiple jobs increase from August 2017 to August 2018.

(Sep. 26) We set a record average sales price during August. We have sold more new homes this year than last year. You are not hearing this elsewhere because this column analyzes the non-seasonally adjusted data where most in the media address the seasonally adjusted data. "Solid August New Home Sales," details how seven of the eight months this year we have sold more units than we did during 2017, with one month tying last year's sales. The inventory is rising, returning to a normal level based on history.

(Sep. 27) We saw remarkable first-time unemployment (FTU) claims data and seriously low continuing claims (CC) data recorded this week. This happened the same day that Judge Kavanaugh's accuser came forward and the Judge gave his impassioned defense before the American people. There used to be headlines when the seasonally adjusted (SA) FTU claims number came in under 300,000  claims, with a "3," during one week. This week was the 16th week this year that the NSA FTU data was under 200,000 claims, with a "2." The most we have ever had during one year is 19. That happened during 1967 when we had fewer than 53 million covered insured. We are approaching 142 million covered insured this year.


(Sep. 28) This column has produced six articles regarding the August Jobs Report. The sixth article was "August: Older Workers Over-Participating" examined the Job Levels, unemployment levels, and participation levels by age group. There have been discussions that retiring Baby Boomers have been dragging down the national participation rate and that teenagers are experiencing record low unemployment. The problem is that we have more people over the age of 60 working, and we have one of the worst participation rates for teenagers ever recorded.


There is more happening that he confirmation of a Supreme Court Judge. We received a reconfirmation that the annualized GDP for the second quarter this week. We received information that fewer than 1% of the covered insured are receiving unemployment benefits for the first time ever. New home sales are improving.... but let's go chase squirrels.


It's the economy.