Reclaiming Common Sense

Over One Million Government Workers were added last month. If you examine the NSA CES data you will find that while there was a contraction of 697,000 NSA CES Private Sector Workers, almost all of whom were in the Leisure and Hospitality Super Sector.  The Number of government workers spiked by 1.037 million. This means that we really added 340,000 non-farm payroll jobs last month. Year to date we have added 1.8 million non-farm payroll workers, with almost all the workers added being in the private sector.

We saw larger than usual month to month contractions in the Construction Sector, the Manufacturing Sector, and the Leisure and Hospitality Sector.  This is most likely a "Hurricane Effect." Construction had to be placed on hold as businesses and citizens in Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico had to first recover from the damage incurred by the three hurricanes. It is going to be interesting when the state and local data is released next Friday. It will be possible to break out the data from these areas and see how the rest of the country did  last month. Note that this paragraph started by saying "larger than usual" contractions. September marks the end of Summer. People go back to school. Apparently people go back to work for the Government, too. The question is how do you add over 1 million non-seasonally adjusted government workers during one month and report a seasonally adjusted loss of non-farm payroll workers? The Devil is in the seasonal factors. Stay tuned for Part 2.

It's the economy.

The only super sector that has not added workers since last September is the Information Technology Super Sector. Mining and Logging is up by 9.13% from September of 2016. Manufacturing is up. Construction is up. This is important because these three sectors have been struggling to recover since the Great Recession.

The September Jobs Report, or Employment Situation Report, was released this past Friday at 8:30 A.M. The jobs report was a memory by 8:30 P.M.this past Friday and a distant memory by 8:30 A.M. Saturday morning. The news was saying that this was a weak jobs report. They reported that 43,000 jobs were lost last month. The problem is that the "jobs" number was actually the worker number. The Jobs data is the Current Population Survey (CPS) data which measures full-time and part-time jobs created/lost, the number of unemployed workers, and the estimated workforce population. These data are used to create the unemployment rate and the workforce participation rate. The number that is often reported is the seasonally adjusted "non-farm payroll" number. The number that President Obama touted was the seasonally adjusted CES Private Sector worker number. This month there was a glaring difference between the two "jobs" numbers:

  • The article "September Jobs Up, Workers Down" details the real (non-seasonally adjusted - NSA) CPS job gains and the "fake" seasonally-adjusted jobs number both climbed. Nearly 1 million non-seasonally adjusted jobs were added during September. Just under 1 million seasonally adjusted jobs were added. Both the NSA and SA Unemployment levels (U3) fell. The drop in unemployment was not as great as the increase in employment. Participation Increased. Period. The CES data showed a large drop in NSA terms, except for the public sector, which will be covered in this article.
  • We are off to the faster Job Creation Streak since President Reagan, and we are adding more jobs, in real terms, than Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush (Bush 43,) or Obama. "Five Presidents at Eight Months: Trumponomics" details how President Trump is increasing participation while decreasing unemployment - something President Obama was unable to do since the depths of the recession.
  • How can the number of workers fall while jobs increase? There was an elevated level of Multiple Job Workers. There was an increase of multiple job workers month to month while there was a decline year to year. The article "Multiple Job Holders Fall during September" details how while the number of MJH workers fell from last September there was an increase in the number of people who worked a primary full-time job and a secondary part-time job jumped 7.76% while those working two part-time jobs jumped by 13.08%

Which super sectors are seeing improvement? Which are not? Which show month to month losses and year to year gains? Which sector lost jobs from last month and last September?