September New Home Sales - Still slower than 1983 or 1992
There are many important reports released every month. The monthly Employment Situation Report, or Jobs Report, is probably the most important report. If we do not have jobs then we are going to see sluggish retail sales, sluggish inflation, sluggish new home sales, and sluggish existing home sales. The September Jobs Report was reported better than it should have been. This is coming on the heels of a weak August Jobs report, and a contracting May Jobs Report.Retail sales were terrible during September. We are seeing Medical Inflation and Shelter Inflation. September Existing Home Sales were slow by almost any measure - the rolling year data, the current year data, or the monthly units sold. August New Construction data was weak, with respect to Starts and Completions. September New Construction data was weak and showed weakening conditions regarding completions. We need completions to generate new home sales.
What did the New Home Sales Report for September Reveal?
New Home Sales Still short of 1992 Levels, Sales Price Dropped From September 2015. The rest of the media will be telling you that this was a weak report, for the wrong reason. The seasonally adjusted data data showed slowing. The real, non-seasonally adjusted units sold were an amazing 46,000 units. Amazing that it jump by 11,000 over last September. Amazing because it is still below the units sold recorded during September 1992. The Average sales price was down from last year's record September Average Sales Price of $367,800. The good news is that most people do not sell their new homes within one year of construction. The bad news is that average sales prices only decline like this during periods of uncertainty.
The Number of Units sold during June, July, and August were all downwardly revised. The units sold during June were revised down from 52,000 units to 5,000 units. July was revised from 57,000 to 55,000 units. August was revised from 50,000 to 47,000. This pulled the current units sold for the year to under 400,000 units as of August. The sale of 46,000 units during September put the current year data back on track for the sales we saw during 1980 or 1975.
Current Year Sales are on track for 550,000 units. We should see between 545,000 and 550,000 units sold. The report is placing the seasonally adjusted pace of 593,000 units, similar to 1992? The authors of the report are not factoring in the recent downward revisions or trends as is being done here.
Rolling Year data is better than 2008, Worse than 1983, 1992. The rolling year data is a lagging indicator. It tells you what has happened during the past twelve months. The growth rate, the upward slope of the line, is not as strong as it was during 1983 or 1992. We are doing better than we were during 2008, and that is good news and bad news. The new home sales market was still in free-fall during September of 2008. We are doing better than crashing.Both years saw new construction sales eclipse 600,000 units.
The downward revisions of June, July, and August are concerning. How much will the September data be revised after the election?
unity Copyright © Jack Dunn All rights reserved.