September Treasury Surplus $82.8 Billion Overshadowed by Total Deficit FY 2019
Fifth largest Deficit Ever on Record Revenue
The September Treasury report was delayed due to "end of the year" issues. The headline last month was that he deficit exceeded $1 trillion. This month that deficit was reduced by a September Surplus. This surplus was anticipated. The level of spending this September was not expected. What was recorded in the September 2019 Monthly Treasury Statement?
Record Annual Revenue reported at $3.462 Trillion. This is up from last year's 3.328 trillion even with the tax cuts. The first time that Revenue eclipsed the $3 trillion level was FY 2013-2014 when we hit $3,020,371. Unfortunately spending that year eclipsed $3.5 trillion. last year the revenue was 3.328 trillion. "On-Budget" revenue rose from $2.474 trillion to $2.548 trillion this year. Corporate Revenue rose from $263.2 billion to 272.4 billion while individual revenue from 1.951trillion to 1.962 trillion. "Off-budget" revenue rose from $854 billion to $914 Billion. The net take-away here is that lower tax rates provided more revenue this year than last year. The first time we broke through the $3 trillion in revenue mark was FY 2013-14.
Record Annual Spending of $4.46 Trillion. The spending during FY 2017-18 was 4.107 trillion. We had never exceeded $3 trillion in spending until FY 2008-09 when we hit 3.5 Trillion. Spending Approached the $4.0 trillion mark during FY 2016-17 when we hit $3.98T. The Major Outlays were Health and Human Services ($1.213T - up from $1.120T,) Social Security (1.101T up from $1.039T,) Defense ($656B up from $603B) and Interest n the Debt $572 B - up from $521B.)
This was our fifth largest deficit at $984B. We had never had a deficit over $1T until FY 2008-09. We had a 1.415T debt during FY 2008-09, deficits of $1.3T during FY 2009-10 and FY 2010-11, and $1.1T during FY 2011-12.
This was not a great report.If spending had not jumped from $224B during September 2018 to $291B during September of 2019 we might have set a record for a September Surplus. The $82.8 billion surplus could have been $100 billion to $150 billion. We do not have a revenue problem. We have a spending problem. Off-budget surpluses are still being used to reduce on-budget deficits. That doesn't sound very "off-budget." There has been a considerable amount of hyperventilating by talking heads that revenue was down this year, until revenue was up this year. There was more hyperventilating that Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security were going to run our of money until receipts exceeded outlays. We still have to pay attention to both "entitlement" programs.
Every October we will start start $570 billion in the hole, or more due to interest on the debt. We need to pass budgets, reduce spending, and reduce the deficit until we have annual surpluses, not just monthly surpluses. We need to run annual surpluses of $1 trillion a year for thirty years to pay off this debt.
It's the Economy.
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