First-time Claims Reported under 300,000 for 258th Consecutive Week
Continuing Claims Reported under 2.0 Million for 148th Consecutive Week.
The weekly unemployment claims report used to be headline news at the bottom of the eight o'clock hour during the Obama Administration. Would the seasonally adjusted (SA) first-time claims (FTU) level drop below 500,000 or 400,000 or 300,000? They stopped mentioning the "streak" after the 2016 Presidential Election. They rarely acknowledge the continuing claims data. They have "never" commented on the Insured Unemployment Rate (IUR.) What was recorded this week? Nothing was reported because we have the continuing Coronavirus situation in China. Here is the report. What does it mean?
Non-Seasonally Adjusted First-time Claims were recorded at 208,305. This is the lowest NSA FTU for the third week of January since, and including, January 1967. The First-time Issuance Rate was just just 0.14%. This was also the lowest level ever for the third week of January. More graphs and data can be found here.
Seasonally Adjusted First-time Claims Streak "reported" under 300,000 for the 258th consecutive week at just 210,000 claims. This streak began under former President Obama. It has picked up steam under President Trump. It used to be reported under the Obama Administration. It is taken for granted under the Trump Administration.
The Non-Seasonally Adjusted Continuing Claims (CC) value was recorded at 2.090 million claims. This is not the lowest level ever. It is also 6,000 claims higher than the same week last year. We do have 2.2 million more covered insured, so the Insured Unemployment Rate (IUR) is the lowest on record for the second week of February. (Continuing Claims data lags one week behind the first-time claims data.)
The seasonally adjusted continuing claims level is under the 2.0 million mark for the 148th consecutive week. We have just 1.726 million seasonally adjusted continuing claims. This streak gets no mention in the Legacy Media. The continuing claims data and graphs can be found here.
This data is so good that it "has" to be ignored. There were pundits talking about the three things that had to happen in order for President Obama to win re-election during 2012. First, the Seasonally Adjusted Weekly Claims level had to drop below 400,000 claims. We had 363,000 SA FTU (Oct. 27,) and 361,000 claims (Nov. 3,) only to pop to 446,000 SA FTU claims on Nov. 10, 2016, Second, the SA Unemployment rate had to drop under 8.00%. Amazingly, the SA U-3 Unemployment rate dropped from 8.1% during August of 2012 to 7.8% during September of 2012. What wasn't being discussed back then was that the participation rate was dropping, too. The participation rate dropped from 64.0% during December 2011 to 63.6% during September 2016. The Third thing that "had to happen" for former President Obama to be re-elected was to have gasoline drop below $3.00 a gallon. It did.
Are the Unemployment claims data, plural, too good to be true? Are they too good to be reported? Ignore the weekly claims data at your own risk. The trends are still our friend. Last year we set a record for weeks with the NSA FTU claims being recorded under 200,000 claims with 23 weeks. Last year we tied a record low of 0.95%. Last year we had a low of 1.369 million continuing claims, comparable to the 1.350 million during October of 2018, with 2 million more covered insured.The earliest that we have had an NSA FTU recorded under 200,000 was February 24, 2018. Last year we had two weeks with SA FTU under 200,000 claims, during the month of April. What can we expect? Expect the unexpected.
It's the Economy.
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