We have had a couple of months of good ADP jobs numbers. The problem is that the ADP data is all seasonally adjusted data. The problem with that, as was detailed in a recent column, is that combined with the differences in sample sizes between the ADP database, the Current Employment Statistic (CES) database, and the Current Population Survey (CPS) database. How do all of the ADP seasonal adjustments reconcile with all of the seasonal adjustments in the CES seasonal adjustments?
There was was data that showed strength compared to last year and last month. Year to year growth and better ADP data compared to April 2016 level mean Friday's Jobs Report should be solid. The April 2017 ADP Report revealed a seasonally adjusted 177,000 private sector jobs added compared to the April 2016 value of 109,000.
Monthly Winners: Mining, Professional and Business Services, Education and Health Services, Leisure and Hospitality, Information, Financial Services, and "Other Services." It may have been easier just to say that they was a slight slow down in Construction and the Trade Transportation and Utility Sectors.
Year over Year Growth Strong in Eight Sectors. Construction, Manufacturing, Professional and Business Services, Education and Health services, Leisure and Hospitality, Trade and Transportation, Financial Services and Other Services are all up year over year. Only Natural Resources and Mining were down April to April.
Total ADP Private Sector Growth is Approaching 2.00%. This rate of growth is greater than April 2005, April 2007, and April 2011. If this holds true, according to the April Jobs Report Forecast Column, then we could see growth in the range projecteded, and possibly even better. The ADP report is showing better growth than the NSA CES Data. Is this a difference between the SA data and the NSA data? Is this the difference between the the data sets?
Stay Tuned - Friday is just around the corner.
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