The Reclamation of Common Sense is Reborn

This column was started out of frustration regarding the monthly jobs report. Up was reported as down. Down was reported as up. Jobs streaks were created through the systematic revision of data and the systematic creation of seasonal factors. People ignored the FACTS, or False Assertions Considered to be True. The Private SectorJobs streak that ended during 2016 with a whimper. The tree that fell in the woods while nobody was watching or listening.

This past year the topic that overwhelmed the media was the Wuhan Virus, or SARS Cov2. The rebirth of the H1N1 virus was ignored. This column would provide weekly updates of the Wuhan Virus in its week in review articles. This data also made very little sense. Those that died of the Wu Flu also had comorbidities, other reasons for their deaths. We saw jobs lost, businesses closed, and families experience great losses as a result of a global pandemic.

This crisis overshadowed the run-up to the 2020 Election. The data was so bad that it could not be adequately projected. Dartboard Economics overtook the media. I was a Realtor in a prior life. I worked with a buyer to bu a new construction home. He asked me to come up with comparables for the home. We compared the home he wanted t buy with those that we had seen, new homes, existing homes, homes in the same school district. We did analysis by square footage and every other way that we could think. He was a financial advisor. In the end, after the home closed, I asked the builder's rep how they came up with the price. They had done the same analysis and factored in the costs to build the home and the profit they wanted. They went around a table, threw their business cards in a "hat" with their estimated sales price and took an average. Dartboard pricing was born. many years later it became Dartboard Economics.

The reason why this column went on a hiatus is not material. What is impi]ortant is why it is coming back. Last Friday there was the December Monthly and Annual Retail Trade Survey (MARTS) report released. By all accounts, it was a disaster. This is what the authors of the report projected and what reporters reported. The truth was that 2019 was a record retail sales year and 2020 was better than 2019. December was the best month of retail sales ever. We nearly had a trillion dollars of on-line retail during December. Now it is time for this column to be revived and report what really happened, especially as we enter the Biden Era.

It's the Economy