This week began where last week left off with the further analysis of the weak July Employment Situation Report. You read elsewhere where it was a strong report. The seasonal factors were manipulated. It was one of the lowest growth rates since the recovery began. The "fan favorite" series "Four Presidents at ____ Months" revealed higher effective unemployment. We also found that we had a Record Level of Multiple Part-time Job Jobholders for the month of July. Further analysis. The First-time claims number that used to get headlines is now an after thought. Friday was the retail sales report.
Let's Get Started
(August 8) There has been an endless number of columns written, some of them refuted here, that President Obama's Job Creation record is one for the history books. The column "Four Presidents at Ninety Months" revealed that we are missing over ten million participants and that the effective unemployment rate should be reported over 12%.
(August 9) There are many stories that are flying under the radar of the rest of the media. One is the aforementioned Effective Unemployment Rate. This is the unemployment rate that factors in the participation rate. Another story is the growth of the multiple jobholder section of the economy. There has been a rise in the number of people working multiple jobs, especially those working multiple part-time jobs. "Multiple Part-time Jobholders Hits Record High for July" details how we have nearly 2 million people working multiple part-time jobs and 7.2 million people working multiple jobs (Full-Time and PT, FT and FT.)
(August 10) How long has the job recovery been? Again, the rest of the world is discussing how President Obama has added 15 million jobs to the economy. The problem is that we lost 15 million full-time jobs from the start of the recession to the worst of the recession. We started shedding jobs during August of 2007 and it did not stop until January of 2010. The column "Seven Years of Jobs Recovery, Seventeen months of Expansion" details how this has been the slowest jobs recovery since 1981.
(August 11) The Weekly Unemployment Claims Report hardly gets a mention these days. The Administration continues to proclaim the FACT (False Assertion Considered to be True) that this this the longest streak of weekly under 300,000 first-time unemployment claims. The streak began during January this year, not March of last year. There have been multiple columns written here in that subject. This past week we received a good unemployment claims report - too good. "The Continuing Claims Level Unchanged - Unbelievable" explains that we should be concerned. Very concerned.
(August 12) We are a consumption based economy. If we earn money, we spend money. If we spend money, employers hire more workers and more products and services are provided. The Monthly and Annual Retail Trade Survey (MARTS) data was reported as flat for the month of July. Supposedly the reported was "Unexpectedly Unchanged." The truth is a little more complicated than that. May's data was revised downward. June's data was revised upward. We saw "July to July retail sales drop in six sectors." This was the second slowest July to July Growth rate since 1992.
When you hear that a report seems too good to be true, it may be too good to be true. It may be a FACT.