Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

This week was a slow week. People are preparing for Christmas and ignoring the news. That is fine. The most important data that was released this week was the new home sales data and the existing home sales data. One of the important data points that was discussed this week was released last week - the Federal Spending and Debt report from the Treasury. Another data point was found in the weekly Unemployment Claims Report and the FACT (False Assertion Considered to be True) of over 90 weeks with the seasonally adjusted first-time unemployment claims level staying below 300,000 claimants for over 90 weeks.


(Dec 19) We have seen our unpatriotic and irresponsible debt nearly double under President Obama. He took office with just over $10 trillion of debt. We have $19.938 trillion in official debt. The article "November Taxes Down - Spending Up" examined the monthly Treasury report and found that, once again, corporate taxes are down, individual taxes are up, and spending is up, as well. It also details how we are no longer seeing gasoline savings.


(Dec 21) We saw some data that impacts most of us at some time during a decade, housing sales data. The first report released was the existing home sales data. "Existing Home Sales Surge - Still Lag Behind 2003" examined the data, not the report.We really did see the best level of November Existing Home Sales data during the past ten years. The problem is that this is still a level of sales over over 10% less than November 2006, and 20% off the peak of 2005.


(Dec 22)The Thursday unemployment claims report accentuated the difference between the seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted data. The authors of the report believe that we have had 94 consecutive weeks of SA FTU Claims under 300,000. We have not. We have had three consecutive weeks of NSA FTU numbers over 300,000.


(Dec 24) The second housing data report we received this week was the November New Home Sales data.The authors of the report reference a hypothetical annual sales pace looking out one year. Not even Realtors forecast their own personal sales out one year. Once again, the report indicates that we are seeing the best level of sales that we have seen during the past nine years. The problem is that we were at near historic lows so this improvement is necessary. The only way to go was up.  "November New Home Sales Contradictions" explains how the average sales price is down from 2015 and 2014, that the units sold are trending under 600,000 units, and how it will take us at least a year until we return to 1983 and 1992 levels of sales.


We do not live in a seasonally adjusted world, unless you consider the four seasons as being seasonally adjusted. We live the unadjusted data, whether it is housing sales, taxes, consumer spending, or jobs.


Merry Christmas. Enjoy the weekend.