Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

Worst Part-time and Full-Time Job Creation Since December 2009


We Lost Unadjusted Part-time and Full-time Workers during December. Just as was with the December NSA CES data, the NSA CPS data has shown regular contraction during December since December of 2007. We squaeked out a slight December NSA CPS gain last December. This is not being reported elsewhere because most writers do not acknowledge the CPS data and, if they do reference the CPS data, they ignore the NSA data.


We Added only 76,000 Seasonally Adjusted Jobs during December. The seasonal factors were all over the place. We can only seasonally adjust our jobs if we find jobs. This is why the data is seasonally adjusted. Did the people who lost full-time jobs and part-time jobs decide to seasonally adjusted their jobs right before Christmas? This seasonally adjusted job growth was the worst December since 2009, as it was for the CES data. I do not hear any discussions on this truth.


We have only added  351,000 Full-time jobs since July 2007. This column has commented on the "Part-time Iceberg" for years. WE added part-time jobs while we were losing full-time jobs. The pre-recession peak for employment happened during July 2007. We almost returned to the total employment level during July 2008. We lost nearly 15 million full-time jobs at the worst of the Jobs Recession We saw the peak level of full-time employment this Summer. The lowest level of full-time employment is normally measured during the month of January. It is possible that we will have fewer full-time jobs during January 2017 than we had during July 2007. Negative growth over a period of nine and a half years.



The Number of Seasonally Adjusted and Non-Seasonally Adjusted Workers increased during December. You are hearing that the unemployment rate was unchanged or changed very slightly. The problem is that the number of unemployed workers grew at a slower pace than the population grew.


The Unemployment Rate Increased and the Participation Rate Decreased, non-seasonally adjusted, during December.  We are in a position where the non-seasonally adjusted participation rate could drop below 62% during the month of January.The current NSA Participation rate stands at 62.40% with a NSA unemployment rate of 4.72%. Next week this column will publish an article regarding the effective unemployment rate. The drop in the participation rate is masking the real unemployment rate.


Net-Net we recorded a net loss workers, a net loss of jobs, and a net increase in unemployed workers. The numbers reported were a seasonally adjusted net gain of workers, a net gain of jobs, and a net gain in unemployed workers.  This was not a good jobs report. This column produced an article saying that we could see a increase of 175,000 SA CES workers and that we should prepare for a gain under 110,000. We didn't add 175,000 SA CES workers. They could have reported a gain as loss as 34,000.


Next week the impact of this jobs environment for the dual job workers, men and women, and people by age group will be analyzed. The impacts on job sectors will also be examined. The four Presidents at 95 months column will be written and the effective unemployment rate will be published.

Skewed Data - Deceptive Seasonal FACTor again


You have read or heard elsewhere that we added 156,000 seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll jobs during December. This is disingenuous, deceptive, and a False Assertion Considered to be True. We saw December Private Sector Workers Drop, non-seasonally adjusted, and only 144,000 Seasonally Adjusted Private Sector workers added to the economy. We saw real. non-seasonally adjusted full-time jobs drop, part-time jobs drop, and Unemployment spike higher. How can this be?


The December Jobs report is the end result from the synthesis of data from two distinct data sets. The Current Population Survey (CPS)  measures the number of full-tome jobs and part-time jobs, the number of unemployed workers, and the workforce population. This data is used to generate the workforce participation rate and the unemployment rate. This is also called the establishment data. The second data set is the Current Employment Statistics (CES) data. This measures the numbers of jobs being worked. There are two main numbers here: the private sector number and the non-farm payroll number. This is also called the household data. Each data set have a seasonally adjusted (SA) component and a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) component.


We saw the number of  Non-Seasonally Adjusted  Private Sector Workers Drop by 0.11% during December.This is fairly normal. We lost NSA CES workers during December during the time span from 2000-2011. How can this be? We have a "Jobs Streak."That streak is a false seasonally adjusted private sector worker streak. The "headline" number is the non-farm payroll number - the streak the President references is the Private Sector number. NFP includes government jobs.


The Seasonal Adjusted turned a Private Sector Loss into a Private Sector Gain. This was the weakest SA Private Sector gain since 2010. The problem is that this is a false number. The seasonal factor used to convert the NSA data to the SA data was artificially high.


Deceptive Seasonal Factors were used, again.  Follow the Bouncing Ball. This Seasonal Factor has not been approached since 2005 or 2011. The skewing of the data has been on-going for months and years. This column produced an article that detailed the recent data manipulation. It is easier to massage the data than it is to change the message.


Did we Add 144,000 Workers or 60,000 Workers? This column forecasted a near record seasonal factor of 0.9952529. With the contraction of 0.11% we still should have added 60,000 workers.


Did we add 60,000 Workers or  34,000 Workers? The answer is neither. We lost workers last month. If we used last December's seasonal factor then we would have only added 34,000 seasonally adjusted CES Private Sector Workers. Would we be flirting with Dow 20,000, as this column is being written, if that headline number was in the double digits?


We Added Fewer Private Sector Workers during 2016 than we added during 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015.  Earlier this year there was the possibility for  a dip in the CES number during July or August. We dodged that bullet. We know that we start the year in a jobs hole - we will lose 2 million workers, or more, during the January Job Report period.


Are we in a Worker Recession? The Annualized Worker Growth Rate is Slower Now than December 2006, better than December 2000, not by much. If you examine the "Two Percent Tipping Point" graph you can see that we were below 2% during 2000 prior to the 2001 recession. We were below 2% during December 2006 after the peak of the housing market. We saw a double camel once prior to the current double camel, at the end of 2000. NSA CES worker growth was 1.48% during 2000 and 1.69% during 2006. We are right in the middle now at 1.54%. This column produced an article over a year ago that projected a possible jobs recession based on a uptick in unemployment claims during the Fall of 2015. The problem is that the unemployment claims number has been distorted by a low participation rate and a high drop-out rate as well as an elevated level of people working part-time jobs or two jobs.  The number of people working part-time jobs dropped this month. This will be discussed in the next section. The number of people working two jobs fell during December. This will be discussed next week.


This was not a good Jobs Report - It was a seriously good seasonal factor. We can't pay bills on a good have a very deceptive December CES worker Number.