Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

The Department of labor still releases its weekly unemployment claims report on a weekly basis. WE continue to see historically low claims for this time of year. The rest of the world reports the seasonally adjusted data for first-time claims and continuing claims. The data that is recorded is the non-seasonally adjusted data. When seasonally adjusted data from a different season is used as a comparison to currents seasonally adjusted data a FACT (False Assertion Considered to be True) is created. The seasonal factors that were to be used this year were revised recently. The data is so good that nobody reports it anymore.


Seriously Low First-time Unemployment Claims. The Only Time we had unadjusted First-time Unemployment Claims Lower during the Third Week of July was July 1968. There were probably only 50 million covered insured back then. I say probably because the data set does not report covered insured  until January of 1972. Today we have 139,989,708 covered insured. This should be headline news. It isn't bleeding so it isn't leading.


Low First-time Claims mean Low Continuing Claims. The first-time claims feed into the continuing claims data. The continuing claims data lags the first-time data by one week,Normally we see a plateauing of claims during the second and third week of July. We have fewer continuing claims than we had during 1971. Again, even if it was identical to those numbers we have more than 80 million more people who are "covered." This is the by-product of elevated levels of multiple job workers and the part-time economy.


Too Much Winning - Too Much Whining - Not enough business news. The data is so good that it is boring. Jobs are up. Unemployment (U3) is down. participation is recovering. Retail sales are strong. New Construction data is good. We are seeing improvement. Snap out of it. Start celebrating success.


It's the economy.