Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

The July Jobs Report was better than expected for most observers. The problem is that they were only looking at the headline seasonally adjusted "Non-farm payroll" or non-seasonally adjusted "Private Sector" worker numbers (Current Employment Statistics.) Another data set is the Current Population Survey (CPS) data.The CPS data measures full-time jobs, part-time jobs, unemployed workers, and workforce population. The impetus of this series was an Internet Meme that reported President Obama as being the best job creator since President Clinton. The Problem was that they were comparing President Obama after six years with Presidents who had completed their terms in office. That is like comparing a rare steak with a fully cooked steak. This article continues the "Four Presidents at __ months" series that was created as a result of that meme.


Non-Seasonally Adjusted Private Sector Worker Growth is the Best of the Five Presidents after Six Months. President Obama's "Jobs Streak" was a seasonally adjusted CES worker streak where the seasonal factors were "massaged" so that they would not have to change the message. If you look at the graph you will notice that President Obama had fewer jobs from day one (the February Jobs report) through the end of 2009. President Reagan 'inherited a recession' from President Carter. President Bush inherited a recession from President Clinton (The DotCom Bust plus the Terror Attack of September 11.) President Obama inherited the Great Recession from President George W. Bush (Bush 43.)It should be noted that President Clinton started with a lower workforce population. It should also be noted that President Trump  inherited the lowest participation rate of the five Presidents.


The full-time job growth is being under reported. Not all jobs are created equally.  We saw full-time jobs drop under President Obama during his first six months in office. We also saw the number of unemployed workers climb and the number of part-time jobs soar to new records. We have seen part-time jobs drop, the number of unemployed workers drop, and the number of full-time jobs soar under President Trump. Right now the media is saying that over 1 million "jobs" have been added tot he economy. They are discussing the seasonally adjusted CES worker number. Reality is that over 4.5 million full-time jobs have been created during the first six months of President Trumps Presidency, non-seasonally adjusted.


The drop in Unemployment Levels is starting to get attention. We have seen the number of first-time claims, non-seasonally adjusted, hit the lowest level on record for the month of July. President Trump has seen the number of unemployed workers drop the most since taking office as compared to the other Presidents.


Participation rate is still lower than any President Since President Reagan. President Trump started with the lowest participation rate of any of the five Presidents. If the Obama administration had not reduced the workforce population during the month of JanuaryPresident Obama would have ended with a workforce participation rate under 62.00%.


When Participation is factored into the participation rate a different picture is painted. This website has generated a graphic regard the effective unemployment rate for may months. If we have Full-participation with under 5% unemployment right now with a workforce participation rate of 63.46% (NSA) then did we have fuller or fullest participationwhen the July participation rates were closer to 67%?


We are Missing up to 10.4  Million Participants. When the participation rates of other "First Julys" are applied to the current workforce population we could have 4 million, 7 million or 10 million more workers. How much would our economy be roaring with all those people working, earning wages, paying taxes, and spending money?  When those missing workers are counted as "effectively unemployed" the effective unemployment rate soars from 4.% to 9.35% or as high as 12.70%


The economy is doing better. Jobs are up. There are more workers in the workforce. There are fewer unemployed workers. The workforce participation rate is still below 64%.


Future Columns will examine how men and women are doing in the extended recovery and no expansion of the workforce, as well as which sectors are growing and which are still recovering. There will also be articles written on the multiple job holder number and  the work data by age group.


It's the economy.