Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

 This week was a slow week for data until Friday.  This is normal for the week after the Jobs Report is released. The slowness of data release is a good opportunity to do a deeper dive into the Jobs Report data.


(July 10) The June Jobs Report revealed that we had a drop, month to month, in people working multiple jobs. We also saw a record level of June workers who were working two part-time jobs.


(July 11) The June Jobs Report also has sector data available. We saw "Nine of eleven sectors add workers during June." The only sectors that did not add workers were the Government Sector and the IT sector.


(July 11) There has been a considerable amount or air-time spent discussing the the "Retail Ice Age." The article "Retail Winter or Retail Ice Age" was written in advance of Friday's monthly MARTS Retail report. Anybody who has gone out to "brick and mortar" stores to shop during the past few months and years will attest to the situation where salespeople are being replaced by cashiers and cashiers are being replaced by self-checkout lines. This article looks at the changes in jobs in the retail sector, using the MARTS classifications, plus Leisure and Hospitality jobs.


(July 12) This column has published articles based on dubious Internet memes. The "War on Men" series was created after one of these memes hit my Twitter timeline. "Is the War on Men Waning" details how men now have a record level of Full-time Jobs. It has taken almost ten years to do this since the peak pre-recession market of July 2007.


(July 13) The JOLTS data has been revealing increases in Education and Unemployment Claims Separations, and that separations are happening faster than hires. The article  ""Education and Health Sector Growing" started the analysis of the CES Worker data for the Health and Education Sector. The Social Assistance part of this Super Sector is growing considerably while the Nursing Home part is not.


(July 13)  The Weekly unemployment claims report was released with zero fanfare. We have "Seriously Low Unemployment Claims Data."


(July 15) Yesterday the Consumer Price Index data was released as well as the Monthly and Annual Retail Trade Survey (MARTS) data was released. The seasonally adjusted data was a bit misleading. The monthly data tends to show a decrease from May to June. There is no "Memorial" day to spur sales - Father's day, sort of. Father;s day does not compare to "Mother's Day." The article "June Retails Sales Better than Last June" details how even though there was a drop off from the May Sales level, the April and May levels were upwardly revised, some sectors have not recovered from the recession, and some may be feeling the impacts of the "Amazon Effect." It also revealed that we are on track to have our best retail sales year - EVER.


The data is the data. The seasonally adjusted data messes up the conversation. You can figure out how they are changing the data - you can't always figure out why. The seasonal factors for the rest of the year for the unemployment data was published this week. We could be reporting even lower unemployment claims data using the same data that is being recorded. Sometimes the data can be analyzed quickly. Sometimes the data can be analyzed easily. Sometimes it is a bit of heavy lifting. This data is government data. The analysis is all me.


It's the economy.