Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense


Most June Starts and Completions since 2007. The Starts data was higher than June 2008 through June 2016, June Only. They were also slower than 1983-2007. The Completions data was also higher than June 2008 through 2016. This June level of completions was slower than 1994 through 2007. The total number of units under construction was only slower than 2004-2007 and 1984-1987. The histograms can be found here.


The Running Year Starts data continues to climb higher.  This number tells us where we have been. You can see by the pitch of the graph that there is steady improvement on the starts data. You can also see that the starts data is not spiking as it did during 1983, 1993, or 2005-2006. This could be a good thing. Slow and steady wins the race. It also means that it will probably take longer to return to the 2006 levels than it took to get there in the first place. The same can be said for the completions data. The graphs can be found here.


The Current Year Data is also equally as strong. The starts data is better than 1983 or 2016, ands slower than 1992. Seeing as 20016 was better than 2009-2015 this is a very good thing. A similar situation is seen with the completions data. The completions data was better than 1983 and 2016. They were a little Better than than 1992. This column has been comparing current month data to that recorded during 1983 and 1992 for an extended period of time.The graph for he rolling year completions data can be found here.


The punchline is that this economic recovery is no joke. There is a considerable amount of work that needs to be done to return to peak construction. Do we want to return to peak construction if it leads to another "once in a lifetime" new construction crash? The Current Month data and Rolling Year data show that we have had regular peaks and valleys. It also reveals that once we break through 1.2 million to 1.4 million starts during a given year we begin to enter "correction" territory. The data was good today. If only we spent as much time talking about the economy as we did the repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act, Russian side comments, or Democrat Obstruction.


It's the economy.