Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense


This week we will receive both the existing home sales data and the new home sales data. Existing home sales will be released at 10 AM on June 24th. New Home Sales will be released on June 26. There are a multiple number of ways to look at the data: Month to month changes in units sold and sales price, year to year change in units sold and sales price, the current year total sales (January to June,) the Rolling year Sales (July 2016 through June 2017,) and the total inventory of new and existing home sales. Inventory has been low for both new and existing homes.


Existing Home Sales should Rise over last Month's and Last Year's June levels. If the units grow as they have since 1999 then the growth rate inunits should be 5-15% month to month and 2-5% June to June. June 30th, or the final day of the month, is the busiest closing day during the year. This places to units sold between 582,000 to 638,000 based on month to month and 593,000 and 611,000 units  based on year to year growth,. Sales Prices should increase by 3%-4% month to month, 3% to 5% year to year. This pegs the average sales price to 298,000 to 302,000 and $303,00 to 309,000 respectively. Expect an Average Sales price over $300,000. Inventory levels are a crapshoot - still should be a record low for June. The current rolling year sales could exceed 5.50 million. The Current Year data is trending with 2002, so we could see that annual pace of sales projected over 5.6 million units.


New Home Sales Should Also improve over last month's levels and last year's levels. While it is possible for the new units sold to drop by 1% they could improve by 3%. Year over year, same month, should see an increase of 15-25% in units sold. The Average Sales Price should increase 3% to 4% from May 2017 and 20-25% from June of 2016.  The combinations and permutations mean that we should see 57,000 to 59,000 units sold with a possibility of over 60,000 units sold - the under construction data is near all-time highs. The average sales price has been soaring. Last month's sales price was $406,000 so it should be at least over that level.The range for sales price is $418,000 to $424,900. The rolling year sales is currently at 591,0000 - it should be revised up to 595,000 units. The Current Year Sales is trending with 1983 where we ended with 622,000. Expect the target for this year to be reported around 610,000 units.

Real estate sales generate other sales. June is normally a strong month for new and existing homes. Pay attention to the revisions and the growth.


It's the economy.