Reclaiming Common Sense

Some Sectors Have Recovered from the Recession - Others Have Not.

You have heard by now that the May Jobs Report was disappointing. The media, and this column, were anticipating a stronger jobs report after the release of the May ADP Jobs report. This column reported last week that the May Jobs report was better than the May 2016 Jobs Report. The May 2016 jobs number was negative until a phantom revision happened. The rest of the world moved on to the next covfefe while this column continued analyzing the data. President Trump has generated more full-time jobs and shed more unemployed workers that Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W. Bush or Obama after four months in office. President Obama did the opposite - shedding full-time jobs and adding to the unemployment levels. Another thing: Men lost over 10 million jobs during the recession. It took them until last Summer to recover all of those lost full-time jobs before losing them again last Fall. Men finally have more full-time jobs than they had during July 2007 at the peak of the pre-recession jobs market, and it isn't even July. The Sector Data has been telling the story of why the men have had such a hard time recovering to pre-recession work levels.

Different Month - Same Story. This is the same story that this column has been reporting for month: Construction, Manufacturing, Mining and Logging, and Professional Business Services have not returned to pre-recession levels of workers. Mining and Logging had recovered before faltering when the price of gas fell and the infamous "cheap gas stimulant" took hold. Information Technology may "never" recover at the rate it is going.  These sectors tend to be male dominated sectors. There are women in construction. There are women in mining and logging. There are women in Manufacturing, Professional Business Services, and IT. There just tend to be more men in these sectors than women.

Ten Sectors Grew from April to May. This is a similar story to the April Sector Report.We saw the largest month to month growth in the Leisure and Hospitality Sector and  the Construction Sector.  Summer work is working. We have 2.2 million more workers in the workforce this May than this past May. The Five Sectors previously mentioned are down up to 12% from their pre-recession peak. Financial Services has almost entirely recovered.  What may be interesting to note is that the non-farm payroll growth rate was only 0.53% month to month while the private sector growth rate was 0.72%. The Private Sector is growing.

Interesting Downward Data Revisions to three Sectors. The April Trade, Transportation and Utilities (TTU) number was revised down 27,000 workers. The IT sector was reduced by 11,000, as was Construction. Education and Health Services was revised up 9,000 and Manufacturing was revised up another 6,000.TTU was also revised down for March by 8,000.

We used to manufacture "stuff," now we service "stuff." Manufacturing was the largest industry during May 1980. Manufacturing is now in fourth place behind TTU, Education and Health Services, and Professional and Business Services. Leisure and Hospitality is one of the top three sectors in the workforce - What Restaurant Recession?  There are over 16 million workers in Leisure and Hospitality. We have been eating and drinking our way out of the recession - Food and Beverage Store Sales are Up, Food and Drinking Establishment Sales are up. Are costs up and profits down due to the Affordable Care Act and changes in the minimum wage?

The recovery is in full swing, finally. Full-time jobs are up. Unemployment is down. Men are getting back to work. We are starting to "build stuff," again.

It's the economy