Reclaiming Common Sense

A little reviews report is the monthly Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Report. This breaks down the data from the current Employment Situation Report by State and Category of work. Let's review what was learned from the August Employment Situation Report before the release of the September Report:


  • We lost over 1 Million Part-time Jobs Last Month. Not only did we lose over 1 million jobs, we saw the second slowest "worker growth" for the month of August, during the past six years. Our Current Employment Statistics (CES) Job Growth rate is mirroring what we saw during 2006. We are not in a recession, yet. The Seasonally adjusted CES data could have been reported as being negative.
  • The Effective Unemployment Rate is between 10.27% and 13.15%. The Four Presidents at 91 Months column revealed how President Obama has the lowest Participation Rate during his 91st month as compared to Presidents Reagan, Obama, and George W. Bush . This drop in participation means that we are missing  between 8.7 million and 10.9 million participants.
  • We are working harder not smarter. We saw a record level of people working two Full-time Jobs for the month of August this year.
  • We have a lower participation Rate for everyone between the ages of 16-64. If you pay attention to the jobs report data you know that we are at a generational low for the workforce participation rate. The seasonally adjusted data is still dismal. The unadjusted participation rate has recently stabilized.
  • Women have added more Full-time Jobs than Men during this recovery. Men lost 10.6 million full-time jobs during the recession. It took until July of this year to add to the number of full-time jobs they had during July of 2007. There was a slight recovery last year before they lost full-time jobs again. Women have added more full-time jobs than part-time jobs since July 2007. Men have added more part-time jobs than full-time jobs since July 2007. July 2007 was the peak employment month prior to the recession.
  • Five Employment Sectors have not returned to Pre-Recession Levels.  We have fewer people in Manufacturing, Construction, Information Technology, Financial Services, and Government than we had during August 2007. 


Where you live has an impact on whether or not your jobs have recovered.

We Have Seen Nine States Drop in Employment Since August 2007 and Stay below Those Levels. It's not all doom and gloom. California and Washington DC have seen stability and growth during the Great Recession. Arizona has almost recovered. Connecticut has almost recovered. The same could be said regarding Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Rhode Island, West Virginia,and Wyoming all have lower employment levels than August of 2007. One of the worst hit is Puerto Rico. It isn't a state. It is a territory.

We have four states that have recovered where Employment is slowing. Kansas, Louisiana, North Dakota, and Oklahoma have recovered from the depths of the recession. The problem is that the economy is down from 2015 levels for all four states. Kansas and Louisiana peaked during 2015. North Dakota and Oklahoma peaked during 2014 - most likely related to the drop in oil prices and the less favorable conditions for fracking, hydraulic fracturing. West Virginia and Puerto Rico could be thrown into this same category, except they have not recovered and they are declining from their post recession peaks.

If I were the Trump Campaign I would be touring these states and promoting this message. If I worked for the Clinton campaign I would tout the recovery in the other states and promise a complete recovery for the other states and Puerto Rico.