Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

There are more June Workers than June 2016 in almost all age groups. The interesting things here are that there are fewer June workers who are 50-54 years old than last June.  It is also interesting to note that employment was down for those 30 to 59 years of age, excluding those 40-44 years old, as compared to May of this year. Why is employment down as compared to last month for the majority of the workforce? It is also important to note that employment is down for those for those 35-54 years old as compared to June 2007. July 2007 was the peak jobs month prior to the recession. Employment is up for those 50 years of age and older during that same period of time. Some of the changes is due to an "age shift" for those who were 40-44 during 2007 were 45-49 during 2012 and 50-54 years of age this June. There is a huge drop for those who were 55-59 years of age during 2007.  Also note that we had record June levels of people 55+ working last month.


The Unemployment Level is near record low levels. If you are employed or unemployed you are a participant. The data indicates that unemployment is higher for those 25-34 years of age right now than it was during June 2007, in real numbers. They have seen improvement since last June. Conversely the unemployment numbers now are lower for those 45-54 and 60-69 compared to June 2007 and Up since June 2016.

The June Jobs Report was even better than is being reported. This column has already published numerous articles on June Jobs Report, even as the rest of the media is moving on with their coverage of Fake News. While some commentators are lamenting that the seasonally adjusted data is less than spectacular, this column focusing on reality, or the non-seasonally adjusted data:
We saw the number of full-time jobs added to the Market exceed what was added during the June reporting periods of 2007-2016. We saw 1.426 million NSA Full-time Jobs added  this June.

The aging workforce is a major concern. The data over the months and years have shown that people are working longer. Older workers are working more jobs than prior to the recession, they are participating more, and they are not retiring as they used to retire.

The Participation Rate  impacts Unemployment Rate and the Unemployment Rate Impacts the participation Rate. There is a considerable amount of press given the historically low unemployment rates and the historically low participation rate. President Obama reduced the unemployment rate, in part, because participation decreased. They were not unemployed. They were not employed. The workforce population grew and jobs did not keep pace with the population growth. It is difficult, if not impossible, to compare unemployment of 5% with a 67% participation rate with 5% unemployment at a 63% participation rate.  The difference is not just 4% - it is much more because the unemployment rate is based on the number of participants in the economy and the participation rate is based on the workforce population. The "Five Presidents" columns have been comparing unemployment with participation for a considerable period of time. It was the origin of the "U-7" unemployment rate. If people are not employed or unemployed they are "missing" and "Effectively Unemployed."


Do we really ahve Negative Unemployment for those over the age of 60? People under the age of 60 are participating less now that they were during July 2007.People over the age of 60 are participating more than prior to the recession. Can they not afford to retire? Is the delayed retirement impeding younger people from finding work. Is upward mobility being impeded? 


The data is the data. It is improtant to recognize all of the components of the jobs report:Full-time and part-time Jobs,Unemployed workers, Employed workers, Workers working multiple jobs.  Some sectors are hiring and expanding, others are not, Some age groups are thriving while others are not.The more peopel are working, they more money they have to spend. The more money that is spent, the faster the economy grows and the faster corporations hire people, and the more people who have full-time jobs the more homes that can be sold, new or existing. More homes sold need more furniture, electronics, appliances, landscaping, etc.


It's the economy.