Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

New Construction Data is Rolling Higher

Three main reports will be released with regard to the real estate market: the New Construction Report, the New Home Sales Report, and the Existing Home Sales Report. The new construction forecast article examined the month to month and September to September possibilities for New Construction starts, under construction, and Completions data points. The same article made projections for the new home sales projections regarding average sales price and units sold.

New Construction Starts Hit 72,300 - Better than 2008-2016. The forecast article projected a low of 69,000 starts and a high of 77,000 starts. The rolling year data, shows steady improvement with 834,000 units starts during the past twelve months. This is better than 2008-2016, faster than 1991 (814,000) slower than 1992 (1.006 million) and slower than 2007 (1.136 million) The current year data, January through September is better than last year. WE saw 789,300 units started during 2016. It looks as though 800,000 units are within reach.

The Number of Units Under Construction came in at  1.1012 million units. The forecast was for over 1.1 million units, with the possibility of 1.2 million. The projected range of year to year growth was 15-20%. The real annual growth was 4.79%. That said, we saw over 1.1 million units under construction during 2003-2007. The last streak where we were over 1.1 million units was 1994-1996. There is not a rolling year or current year graph to go with the data because the under construction data is a de facto rolling average.

The number of completions surged to 99,300. The number of completions were projected to be between 94,000 and 97,000 units.  Once again, this data is better than was recorded during 2008 through 2016 for the month of September. There is still room for improvement here. We saw over 100,000 units completed during the month of September from 1983-2008. The housing recession, especially the new construction housing recession, was far worse than has been reported elsewhere. The Rolling Year data 1.140 million units completed. This is better than September 2009-2016. It is better than September 1992 and slightly slower than September 1993. The Current Year data is better than 1992 and is better than 2008. Could we see 1.2 million units completed this year?

The Starts and Completions data for August were revised higher from their advance values. The data released today was the September Advance value. We also received the "preliminary" August data and the "final" July values. Will we see upward revisions of the September data next month? Will we see completions accelerated as demand for housing increases due to the hurricanes?

Next week we will receive the new home sales data. This data has been improving since the recession. The monthly average sales price for the current month has been steadily increasing year over year. The forecast column projected a new record average sales price for the month of September. Will it be $374,900 or $379,900 or $384,900. The same column projected 44,000 to 50,000 units sold. Last year we had 44,000 units sold. The economy is improving. We are emerging from the 7-year "quiet period" for people that went through foreclosures or bankruptcies. The mortgage deduction is one of stimulants that keeps the economy humming. If more people buy existing or new homes and more people receive deductions, this economy can continue its expansion.

It's the economy.

The Rolling Year graphics can be found here.

The Current Year graphics can be found here.