Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

The monthly Jobs Report, or Employment Situation Report, is "the most anticipated" monthly economic report. This Friday we will receive the September Jobs Report. This report contains data collected up to September 12th. The ADP Payroll report is released the Wednesday prior to the Friday employment Situation Report. Monday of this week this column produced an article showing that non-seasonally adjusted Current Employment Statistics (CES) Private Sector Worker data should fall and the seasonally adjusted data will be reported as rising from the August level.  "September Jobs Forecast, Down is Up" also examined the Current Population Survey (CPS) data and found that we should record non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) full-time jobs fall and NSA Part-time jobs rise. This same article also discussed how the NSA Unemployment data should fall and the SA Unemployment data may increase from the August level.  This column also published an article regarding the ADP payroll possibilities. "Potentially Strong Sept. ADP Report" detailed how eight of ten private sector "super sectors" should show growth over August. Comparison of the seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted data is not possibly with the ADP data because only the seasonally adjusted data is published.


ADP Reported Upward Revisions to Goods Producing Jobs.  The overall picture for July was upward revisions to the July and August Goods Producing Jobs of 12,000 for July and 26,000 for August. The Service sectors saw downward revisions of 15,000 jobs for July and a downward revisions of 37,000 jobs to August.


Construction, Mining, Manufacturing, Profession Business Services and "Other Services" all saw upward revisions to their July and August Values. Leisure/Hospitality, Trade,Transportation, Utilities, Information/technology, and Health/Educational Services were all revised down for both July and August. This is important because the TTU, Education and Health Services, and Leisure/Hospitality jobs have led the recovery and growth of the economy since the Great Recession. Construction, Mining, and Manufacturing have been unable to fully recover to pre-recession levels.


September ADP Report Shows Monthly Growth in all Private Sectors except Trade/Transportation/Utilities and  IT. The Information Technology Sector continues its weakness. Construction grew at one of its fastest paces for the month of September since 2002. The same can be said for Manufacturing. Growth in the Education and Health Services (EHS) and Leisure and Hospitality Sector (L/H) were slower than we have seen during the past nine years.


September ADP Showed annual growth in all private Sectors except IT. The growth rates for Construction, Natural Resources, Professional Business Services (PBS) Financial Services, and Other Services were "as strong as they have been" for the month of September since the recession.


The Annual Growth rate is staying stable at roughly 2%. This column has written numerous articles on the Employment Situation CES growth rate. A two percent growth rate looks good. Remember that this a rolling year of a seasonally adjusted data base. Will we break through the 3% value this February?How about 2.5%?


Last month the ADP number was remarkable and the Employment Situation data was "Meh." This month the ADP data was good - not great. Does this mean that we might be able to expect better than expected data this month?


It's the economy.