Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

This week was a slow week for data. The final week of the month tends to be slow as we await the Monthly Employment Situation report. This meant that the "Kneeling NFL" story was able to suck all of the oxygen out of the room. It turns out that the player are the ones that need the oxygen.


(Sept. 26)There is going to be considerable focus on the monthly jobs reports, or Employment Situation Reports, as the impact of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria are observed.We have to understand what normally happens within Texas, Florida, or Puerto Rico month to month and year to year to understand the impact of the hurricanes. "Florida, August Jobs and Unemployment Pre-Irma"


(Sept. 26) There are a number of reports which used to garner more attention than they do today. The New home sales report, the existing home sales report, and the weekly unemployment claims reports are three of those reports. The existing home data was released last week. The new home sales report for August was released this week. This month we set a record for the August New Home Average Sales Price and Median Sales Price. We saw the units sold just about match last year's level. This August was best than August 2008, August 2009, August 2010, through August 2015. Next month the data will probably be revised higher.


(Sept. 27) Puerto Rico received a direct blow from Hurricane Irma. The impact on jobs and unemployment will not be measured next  week in the September Jobs Report because the storm hit September 26th and the collection date was September 12th. It is possible that we will see some impact in this report from Hurricane Harvey in the September Jobs Report.What hasn't been reported is that Puerto Rico had a fragile economy prior to Hurricane Irma.


(Sept. 28)  Yes, they still produce weekly unemployment claims reports. No, we are not seeing a huge spike in unemployment claims as a result of Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Irma, or Hurricane Maria. The authors of the report have been stating that we are seeing the impacts of Hurricane Harvey and Irma - does that mean that the recent drops in non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) first-time unemployment (FTU) claims and continuing claims (CC) mean that hurricanes are "beneficial?" "Strong September Weekly Unemployment Claims" details how the NSA FTU numbers have crept up from 211,000 to 212,000 to 215,000 claims during the past three weeks. Under 300,000 Seasonally Adjusted Claims a week is considered good. This column and its predecessors have detailed that the FACTs (False Assertions Considered to be true) include the reporting of the SA FTU data.  The Continuing Claims Data are equally as strong. We have fewer continuing claims data for the third week of September than we had during the third week of September 1971.


It appears from the research that the people writing the reports, new home sales, existing home sales, employment situation, or virtually any other report, do not want to report good news.  If we focused as much time on the economy as we do on the NFL taking a knee fewer people would be protesting and more would be celebrating.


It's the economy.