Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

''There is more to the monthly employment situation report, or Jobs Report, than the number of private sector workers added to the economy or the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. There are two data sets used to create the report. The Current Population Survey (CPS) measures job growth: Part-time Jobs, Full-time Jobs, unemployed workers, as well as the workforce population. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) measures workers. Some sources quote the non-farm payroll data while other, including the former Obama administration, report on the Private Sector data, which excludes government jobs. All of the data has a non-seasonally adjusted data component and a seasonally adjusted data set. The complete analysis of the data takes days to do and is the fodder for numerous columns.


The first article was "July Jobs Report Fireworks" We saw full-time jobs record an increase during July. The same could be said for part-time jobs and the number of unemployed. This means that we recorded an increase in the workforce participation rate. We also saw July workers increase in numbers at a rate greater than July 2013 and slower than July 2015 and July 2016.

The second article written was "Five Presidents at Six Months." This column compared President Trumps first six months of jobs and worker creation with Presidents Reagan, Clinton, Bush 43, and Obama. President Trump has added over 4 million full-time jobs and trimmed the number of part-time jobs and unemployed workers during his first six months where President Obama oversaw a jump of over 2 million unemployed workers. unemployed workers. President Trump has added more workers than President Clinton and almost as many overall jobs.

The third article examined the changes in employment and participation of men compared to women. "Men Finding New Full-time Jobs" detailed how men lost more full-time jobs than women during the recession. It also detailed how women recovered quicker from the recession and have added more jobs than men since July 2007, the peak of the pre-recession employment market.It also detailed how the U-7 for men is over 10%.


The Fourth article "Record July Level of Two PT Job Workers" examined the "Multiple Jobholder" data. We have been seeing a decline in the total number of multiple job workers during the past few months. We have even seen a decline in the number of people working two part-time jobs. The interesting data here is that we has seen a record level of people working two part-time jobs during many of the previous months, and July 2017 was not much different. We also have an elevated level of people working two full-time jobs.


Where are we seeing Job Growth?  The data reveals that we have seen substantial growth in the Trade, Transportation, and Utility Sector, the Health and Education Sector, the Leisure and Hospitality Sector, and Professional and Business Service sector. The problem is, as has been reported for many months on this website, is that we have not seen a complete recovery in the Mining and Logging Sector, the Construction Sector, the Manufacturing Sector or the IT sector. There is a differences between real growth, the number of workers added or lost, and the growth rate, the percentage change in the number of workers. The growth data reveals strong month to month and July to July growth in Mining and Logging as well as Construction. It continues to be remarkable that with "all the focus" on STEM (Science Technology Engineering Mathematics) jobs that the IT Sector is below the level it was during July 2007, July 2009, and July 2016.


Data Revisions were slight. The data revisions table reveals that the May data was revised downward from its preliminary value and the June data was revised higher from its advance level.


This column has previously produced an article on the Retail Job data. It has also published article on the Health and Education Sector data.The data is the data. Even as we see men return to the workforce, even as we see part-time jobs fade and full-time jobs strengthen, there is a huge gap between worker growth and jobs growth, causing a drop in the participation rate. We had fewer full-time jobs during January 2010 than we had during January 2003. We had more jobs than workers during the Summers of 2003 through 2007, when the job creation exceeded the workforce population growth, as is evidenced in the second histogram. We have added just over 18 million jobs for 35 million potential workers. The Great Recession was a Jobs Recession as well as a housing recession and a retail sales recession, which was reflected in the GDP recession.


The government will be publishing data on the retail sales for July as well as the data for new home construction and sales data as well as existing home sales data. This data has non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted components. We are on track for the best retail sales year ever, non-seasonally adjusted. Declines in some retail sectors are being converted to non-store retail sales. We are seeing record average sales prices in new home sales and existing home sales. We are seeing existing home sales comparable to where we were during the Summer of 2002 and 2003.  Jobs beget sales. Sales beget jobs. It is the jobs-Sales Paradox. Right now the data is looking good. The number of full-time and part-time jobs increased this past month. The number of workers increased last month. Men have finally recovered all of the 10 million jobs that they lost during the recession and are adding jobs. People are working multiple jobs at a lower rate than last month and a higher rate than last year. Some sectors have expanded since the recession while others are still recovering. Data matters.


It's the economy.