This was a slow week for data. The main story was the weak housing data that we received this week. Last week it was weak new construction data. This week it was weak new home sales data and weak existing home sales data. When all of the Black Friday sales data are tallied we will probably fine that we had record levels of "non-store" retail sales and weakening in-store sales. We also saw the true fragility of the FACT (False Assertion Considered to be True) that we have had 90 consecutive weeks of under 3000,000 seasonally adjusted (SA) first-time unemployment (FTU) claims. Last year during the 3rd week of November it should have ended. This year it should have ended, too. The chose seasonal factors that skewed the data to their advantage, not ours.
(Nov 21) This week this column covered this past week's unemployment claims data as well as the week prior. The unemployment claims number used to be the lead story during the 8:30 time slot on the day that it was released. Now it is an after thought. It's Thursday? "Nov 17 Unemployment Claims Craziness" examined some of the FACTs being promoted and scoffed at comparing data from different seasons with entirely different seasonal factors. Did we have 187,000SA FTU pr 245,000? Throw a dart at the board and report a Goldilocks number of 235,000. Eight-nine consecutive weeks of sub-300,000 SA FTU claims? Please.The streak didn't started when they said it did. It has ended some many times I have lost track. You could read the four-part column on the origin of the FACT/myth.It was supposed to have started during March of 2015. It restarted the Third week of January this year. It ended, again, this week.
(Nov 23) Existing home sales and new home sales are substantial components of a healthy economy. The housing recession preceded the Gross Domestic Product recession and the Jobs Recession, which preceded the Retail Sales recession. This week the October existing home sales data was inauspicious.We saw a plateau in the October units sold. We saw that the average sales price of units sold during October 2016 barely eclipsed what we saw during October 2005. An eleven year recovery of sales prices is very inauspicious. We might fall short of 5.2 million units sold this year and may fall short of last year's volume.Very inauspicious, indeed.
(Nov 24) Thenew home construction data that was released during the prior week were shockingly bad to some observers. "How Bad Were the Oct New Home Sales" examined the sales data. The problem is that without strong starts and completion data the sales data will not be strong. There may be some lag between completion and sale. That is to be expected. There were fewer new homes sold during October of 2016 than during either October 1983 or October 1992. Unless we see a surge in end of the year new construction sales and closing we will fall short of 600,000 units sold, could fall short of 575,000 units sold, may fall short of 550,000 units sold. We will do better than 2015.We most certainly will see fewer new home sales for the calendar year 2016 than we saw during 1983 and 1992.
(Nov 25) This week the Unemployment Claims Report that is normally released on Thursday was released on Wednesday in advance of the Thanksgiving Holiday. "The "Unemployment Claims Streak Ended, Again."The SA FTU number could have been reported between 244,000 and 305,000 workers. If the seasonal factors from October 2012, 2013 or 2014 would have been used the SA FTU would have been reported right around 290,000. This legacy streak is all that matters to some people. The FACT of 90 consecutive weeks of sub-300,000 SA FTU claims is just that, a false assertion.
The data is the data. If you are seeing homes sell, new or existing, that is good. If you are selling them the conditions may be improving. Prior columns have equated to this housing recovery as to getting a "D" on a term paper instead of an "F" or an incomplete. The unemployment claims number will remain low for some time as people are working more part-time jobs and workers are working multiple jobs.
Next week the Employment Situation Report, or Jobs Report, for November will be released. Will we see jobs lost and workers gained? Will anybody else mention that the President's Private Sector Job Streak ended this past May? Will anybody else calculate the impact of the lower participation rate and produce the effective unemployment rate? Will we see record levels of people working multiple jobs? How many participants will President Obama have at the end of his term as compared to when he began his Presidency? Time will tell.
It's the Economy.