Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

The Election Proved that It Was The Economy during November


Every month the top Ten Columns article highlights the most read columns of the prior month. Sometimes there is a week in review column or a month in review column in the top ten. Sometimes we have columns form other months or other years that garner considerable attention. This month the top ten columns were exclusively focused upon employment and unemployment issues.


(Aug 21, 2015) The column "The Era of the Meme" was written as a result of a Twitter Meme that President Obama had created more jobs than President George HW Bush and George W Bush and was only second to President Clinton for Job Creation. Not quite. This research was the genesis for the "Four Presidents at __ Months" series. This month we will be up to 94 months.


(Nov 9) The workforce is growing slower than it has since 2011. We are adding workers at a slower pace through October than we did during 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. Worker addition slows down as we head into a recession. Does the threat of a recession cause employers to hire fewer workers or does the hiring of fewer workers lead to a recession? "Has the Worker Fade Begun"details how when the annual Non-Seasonally Adjusted  Current Employment Statistics data grows at a rate less than 2% that we see the start of a recession.


(Nov 29) It is rare that a column written at the close of the month hits the top ten columns list for that month. :"Will November Job Creation Continue to Slow" examined the November Data for the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) data. THe CPS data focuses on the jobs created, part-time and full-time, as well as the number of unemployed workers. That same data is used to calculate the unemployment rate and the participation rate. It is anticipated hat FT jobs will decline and that both the participation rate and unemployment rate will decline. The CES data is the dat used for the President's Private Sector Worker Number. It has been reported in this column through various articles that the rate of worker growth (NSA CES) non-seasonally adjusted  has slowed during recent months.


(Nov 25)  This column has generated hundreds of articles covering the weekly unemployment Claims report numbers. This administration has been running victory laps for keeping the seasonally adjusted (SA) first-time unemployment (FTU) claims number under 300,000 workers for over 80 weeks. This column has written a series of articles clarifying the FACTs (False Assertions Considered to be True) that the streak did not begin during March of 2015. It started during January of 2016. The article "Unemployment Streak Ends, Again" detailed how the seasonal factors used to calculate the SA FTU number were skewed, again.


(Oct 31) The forecast for the October Jobs Report was released on Halloween Day.  The column "October (Surprise)  Jobs Report Forecast" examined the data since 1993 and projected that we could have some surprising data. The Current Population Survey that is used to report the unemployment rate and participation rate could show no change or big changes. Full-time jobs could drop. Participation could drop. It also examined the Current Employment Statistics Data that is used for the official "jobs number." It was projected that we should see fewer than 150,000 workers added to the economy and that we could see a seasonally adjusted worker loss.


(Nov 4) Friday November 4 was the "Big Day" before the "Big Day." Friday was Jobs Day. This Jobs Report could have proven to be pivotal. If it was too hot then the Federal Reserve could be inclined to jump interest rates this December. If the report is too cold then it could hinder a Hillary Clinton run at the White House. If it is "just right" nobody but this author would question it. We lost full-time jobs, NSA, and gained part-time jobs. The worker growth was less than 0.40% month to month. Remember the forecast column?  Remember how the data was skewed in the jobs report for September? The data was reported that we supposedly had 142,000 seasonally adjusted private sector workers added to the economy. If we used the seasonal factor for October 2015 it would have been reported at 25,000 SA CES Workers.  That would have not been a Goldilocks Report - That would have been downright chilly.


(Nov 3) Thursday is still the normal release day for the Weekly Unemployment Claims Report.  "First-time Claims Not at 87 Consecutive Weeks" spent  a considerable amount of time going into detail about how the Under 300,000 weekly claims streak is not at 87 weeks. It is actually at 37 weeks. It also details how the first-time claims level has risen, non-seasonally adjusted, for the past five weeks.  This claims of 87 consecutive weeks is a FACT (False Assertion Considered to be True.


(Nov 5) There should be no surprise that with some the top ten columns  of the month being released during the first week of November that the week in review for November 5th was one of the top ten columns of the month.


(Nov 8)  There has been conjecture that the drop in the participation rate since 2007 is based upon the FACT (False Assertion Considered to be True) that Baby Boomers are retiring. The data does not show that trend."Older Workers Working Longer (Oct)"  shows that the employment levels are down for those 35-49 years of age, that the workforce population is down for those from 40-54 years of age, and that unemployment is up for those 50 years and older. Sixty is the new forty.


(Nov 6) Not only are older workers working longer, people are working two jobs in record numbers, or near record numbers. This year we have seen record monthly  levels of people working multiple part-time jobs more often than not. "More People Working Two Part-time Jobs, Again"looked at the data for people working a full-time job and a part-time job, two part-time jobs, two full-time jobs, as well as a primary part-time job and a secondary full-time job. The weekly unemployment claims data is being skewed by the situation that when people lose a job, even a full-time job, and still have a second job, they do not qualify for unemployment benefits.


This column was started during 2014 in an effort to shed some light on the data being pushed by the government. It started as a blog titles "Reclaiming Common Sense" The anxietea2016 handle used for that blog was done consciously because even before we knew who the Presidential Candidates would be it was thought that we were in a sluggish recovery with manipulated data being used as a map through an economic minefield. Earlier this year this website itstheeconomy.info started running parallel columns to the Reclaiming Common Sense website.This column will continue through the next four years and beyond.


Remember, It's the Economy.