(Dec. 3) The ADP Private Sector Payroll data is released the Wednesday that precedes the Employment Situation Report, barring holidays. This Wednesday we received the ADP Report and this Friday we received the Employment Situation Report. Monday this column produced a forecast article for the ADP report. "Nov. ADP Forecast: Strong Month to Month Growth" examined the Current Year Growth, the Same Month Growth, and the Month to month Growth data. The Current Year growth was pointing to a slowdown. The month to month data was pointing towards a strong month.
(Dec. 3) The ADP Private Sector Payroll Report and the Government Employment Situation Report rarely align. The ADP data is one data set. The Employment Situation Report is created using two data sets, the Current Employment Statistics Wages and Workers data and the Current Population Survey Jobs and Unemployment Data. The CES and CPS data have had difficulty aligning this year. Why should they align with the ADP data? "Nov. Jobs Forecast: Strong Holiday Hiring" explained how the past two November Hiring periods were the top two since 1979 and how this November could reveal more of the same. Upward revisions to the September October data was expected. A low seasonal factor was expected, adjusting excellent data down to good data. A record low unemployment rate and a 18 year low in the unemployment level were projected. It was thought that we could rival the November Unemployment data for 1999 and 2000. A bounce in Manufacturing was expected with the end of the GM strike. How good could this report be?
(Dec. 4) The November ADP was a solid miss. The "only" good news was that September and October seasonally adjusted payroll data were revised higher from their latest values. "Nov. ADP Misses Low - Just 67,000 Positions Added" reported on the month to month and November to November Gains, as well as the revisions.
(Dec. 5) This year has been a remarkable year for the weekly claims data. It took a headline number of 203,000 seasonally adjusted first-time claims to get the medias attention. "Week 247 of First-time Unemployment Claims Reported under 300,000" explains how the "streak" is still going and how the continuing claims data streak for consecutive weeks under 2 million seasonally adjusted claims continues its march at 137 consecutive weeks.
(Dec. 6) This column thought that we could have a November that rivaled the past two November Jobs Report. "Nov. Jobs Report: Surprise, Surprise" examined the CPS and CES data. The CES data blew away the ADP data. The CES data also blew away the CPS data. Unemployment fell. The Unemployment rate, unadjusted, matched the record low November unemployment level of 1968 and 1969. This is just the first article covering the November Jobs Report that this column will produce.
(Dec. 7) December 7th has an important place in history. It will be a day that lives in infamy. The December 7th week in review: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs article. Not so much.
(Dec. 9) The week started where last week ended, looking at the November Jobs Report. There has been some concern that we are in a "manufacturing recession." Last month the talk was the GM Strike. The reality is that we have the highest level of Manufacturing workers since November 2008. "November Jobs Report: Manufacturing Success" details the sector by sector growth since November 2016, as well as discusses Wages and Workers.
(Dec. 10) There has been this narrative that the Trump Economy is not reaching "all" people. There are some who are attempting to downplay the successes being seen in the workforce. "Five Presidents at 34 Months: Monster Month" details how President Trump and Former President Clinton were the only ones to reduce unemployment and grow Full-time Jobs. While former President Clinton added more Current Population Survey Jobs than President Trump, President Trump has added 2.7 million more FT jobs than Clinton, and Clinton added 3.1 million more PT jobs than President Trump.
(Dec. 11) This column works hard to write multiple forecast articles during the course of a month. This column produces forecast articles on the monthly ADP payroll report, the monthly Employment Situation Report, the Monthly New Home Construction report, the monthly New Home Sales report, the monthly Existing Home Sales report, and the monthly Retails Sales report. "Nov. Retail Forecast: Big Move Higher" projected some interesting month to month declines and overall records for November for Non-Seasonally Adjusted Sales and Seasonally Adjusted sales.
(Dec. 11) There have been media who have been proclaiming that the Trump Tariffs would cause prices to spike. "Nov. Inflation Lowest Since Nov. 2016" examines the data and finds the same things that we have been finding for months: Shelter Inflation over 3%, commodity deflation, service inflation, and a "suspect" health insurance inflation number.
(Dec. 12) The weekly unemployment claims data used to get headlines as we had 70, 80, and 90 consecutive weeks with the Seasonally Adjusted First-time Claims data being reported under 300,000 claims. "Dec. 7 First-time Claims: Week 248 under 300k" examines the first-time claims data and the continuing claims data. Maybe someone will talk about week 250 when it happens. Oh, wait, that will be the day after Christmas. Never mind.
(Dec. 13) The media was bemoaning abut only reporting a 0.2% seasonally adjusted month to month growth this month. They could have commented on how the November seasonally adjusted MARTS retails sales number was greater than the December 2018 Christmas sales data. The also could have reported what the headline of this month's article stated: "November Retail Records 2.4% Jump" from last November's level.
(Dec. 14) The economic data that was released this week was underwhelming for some in the media. Low inflation is good news. Record November Retail Sales were "less" than expected. The data behaved this week as was expected for this week of December and for the month of November. "Dec. 14 Week in Review: What Inflation? Record Sales" examined the data.
(Dec.16) The week started with the November Real Estate Forecast article. "Nov. Real Estate Forecast: Surprising Starts and Sales" was looking for Remarkable New Home Construction and New Home Sales data.
(Dec. 17) There have been some in the media who have been lamenting weak new home starts data while ignoring stronger completions data. "November New Construction Data Surges: Surprise Spikes in Starts and Completions" digs into the data. The "Starts Recession" appears to be coming to an end. Units under Construction is/are approaching the level last seen just prior to the Great Recession. Completions were comparable to what we saw during November 2016 and Better than November 2017 and November 2018.
(Dec. 18) The JOLTS data is misunderstood. The JOLTS data is different from the Current Population Survey (CPS) jobs data, from where the Unemployment data is obtained. The CPS data is different from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) workers data is different from the CPS data. The CES data is similar to the JOLTS data except it is a different data set from a different month. "Record October Quits" examined the Job Openings, Hires, Quits, and Separation data. Three of the four lowest wage sectors have the highest quits, job openings, hires, and total separations.
(Dec. 19) Thursday was the 249th consecutive week with Seasonally Adjusted First-time Claims Reported under 300,000 claims. Ho Hum.
(Dec. 19) Thursday we also received the Existing Home Sales data. Inventory has been low since 2015. The low inventory did not impact the sales data as much as anticipated. "Nov. Existing Average Home Sales Price Record" details the drop in inventory, the record November Average Sales Price, and the situation where the units sold number was comparable to last November.
(Dec. 20) Friday we received the State Data on Workers and Unemployment. There have been two narratives pushed in the press: 1) Manufacturing is slowing 2) there are 17 states with 31 House seats that may be in play. These "Swing States" swung from red to blue. "Where are the Workers in 17 Swung States" examined the worker data. Sixteen of the seventeen states have seen manufacturing jobs increase from November 2016 to November 2019.
(Dec. 21) The press thought that the headline story this week was the House impeaching President Trump (or did they?) "Dec. 21 Week in Review: Real Estate is Rocking" proposed a different story line for those of us outside of the Beltway.
(Dec. 23) "Where are the Workers in 17 Swung States" was published. There are 17 states that flipped 31 Congressional House Seats during the 2018 midterm elections. They are experiencing a surge in Manufacturing Workers. Some are trimming Government workers. The link to the article is in the opening paragraph.
(Dec. 24) Tuesday was the release date of the November New Home Sales Data. Last week the November Real Estate Forecast article projected that new home sales would drop from their October level and rise form their November 2018 level. Sales tend to slow after March, April, or May. The Annualized sales numbers also fall after the early Spring. "Nov. New Home Sales: Remarkable" explains how this is our best year since 2006.
(Dec. 25) Christmas Day A day to go to church, celebrate the birth of Christ, and enjoy family.
(Dec. 26) Lost in the madness of Boxing Day was the 250th Consecutive week with the Seasonally adjusted First-time Unemployment Claims were reported under 300,000 claims.
(Dec. 27) Last week the "Final" Third Quarter Gross Domestic Product data was released. Some in the media downplayed the fact that the Advance GDP value was 1.9%, that the preliminary GDP was 2.0% and that the final GDP was 2.1%. "Third Quarter GDP Up Again" details the expansion of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and how Gross Private Domestic Investments are up From the level hey were last year during the third quarter, much to the ignorance of the people touting a slowdown in GPDI on a quarter to quarter basis.
(Dec. 28) This week started where it ended last week. The article "Where are the Workers in 17 Swung States" was written on Friday and published on Monday. There are more important things during the Christmas Season than writing an article. This is the fourth day of Christmas. It is more than a song. "Dec. 28 Week in Review: Growing and Growing" was the final article of the year.
There were no data reports released during the final days of the month, at least those reports that this column addresses.